Integrating crowding and safety in the analysis of cyclists’ route preferences: insights from a hybrid choice model

Abstract

In the context of future-oriented urban road infrastructure adaptation, it is crucial to understand the factors that influence cyclists’ route choice behavior to promote cycling effectively. However, the increase in bicycle usage can also lead to crowded cycling infrastructure and increased objective safety risks, which has not been thoroughly investigated in previous studies. This study examine how crowding, safety risks, and route attributes influence cyclists’ route choices, differentiating between e-bike and regular bike users. Using stated preference data from 784 cyclists in Nanjing and a hybrid choice model (HCM), the research integrates latent attitudinal variables and socio-demographic factors. Findings show regular cyclists are more sensitive to crowding and accident risk, while e-bike users prioritize dedicated cycling infrastructure over travel time and road characteristics. The results underscore the importance of including attitudinal variables in route choice models and provide valuable guidance to safely manage rising cycling demand and improve navigation systems.