A comparison of pendulum models for large-amplitude longitudinal prominence oscillations

Abstract

Large-amplitude prominence oscillations offer diagnostic information relevant to understanding the magnetic and plasma structure of solar prominences. Accurate prominence seismology requires the use of reliable models. The so-called pendulum model for large-amplitude longitudinal prominence oscillations has demonstrated robustness against observations and numerical simulations. Recent improvements have extended the model to situations with non-uniform gravity, thus leading to corrections that have implications for the inference of the magnetic field strength. In this study we quantify how the different model predictions given by the original and extended pendulum models impact the inference of the minimum magnetic field strength derived from the observed periods of large-amplitude longitudinal prominence oscillations. The analysis we conducted follows a Bayesian approach to solve the inference problem and assess the absolute and relative plausibilities of the two considered models in explaining the observed data, with their uncertainty. We find that the Bayesian solution to the inference problem provides well-constrained posteriors for the minimum magnetic field strength. However, the solutions from each adopted model differ, with differences increasing with the oscillation period. A model comparison analysis results in the extended model being more plausible in the full range of observed periods. However, the magnitude of the Bayes factor is not large enough to determine whether there is positive evidence supporting any of the models. We suggest computing model-averaged posteriors as the most reasonable solution to the inference problem.