Strategic governance of quantum supply chains: a criticality-based framework for risk, resilience, and data-driven foresight

Abstract

Quantum technologies are moving from laboratory research to real-world deployment, but progress rests on narrow, fragile, globally dispersed supply chains. We introduce the Quantum Criticality Index (QCI)—a tri-axial assessment of supply risk, substitutability, and strategic significance—augmented with an artificial neural network (ANN)-based trend-detection module and a forward-looking stress-testing component. A case study of molybdenum (Mo), essential for superconducting circuits, single-photon detectors, cryogenic hardware, and other dual-use, security-sensitive systems, demonstrates how the QCI pinpoints chokepoints that could hinder hardware trajectories. Building on these diagnostics, we translate risk awareness into action through a governance framework that links the stages of diagnosis, decision, and delivery. By coupling structured indicators with predictive analytics, the QCI provides policymakers and industry with an evidence-based tool that translates diagnostics directly into an operational policy roadmap for allied procurement, intellectual property governance, targeted licensing, and verifiable, sustainable supply-chain assurance. Crucially, QCI-enabled supply chain resilience can function as a hardware-oriented complement to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) migration, together forming a twin-pillar security framework in which physical supply-chain assurance underpins the quantum ecosystem, while PQC protects data integrity and critical infrastructure against “harvest-now, decrypt-later” campaigns and systemic risks.