The Influence of Economic and Political Positions of the United States on Sovereign Credit Ratings

Abstract

This study gathered rating data from diverse countries and regions between 1995 and 2022 to assess the influence of the level of political and economic interactions with the United States on credit ratings. It employs a random-effects ordered logit model for empirical analysis. The findings reveal that for countries aligned with the United States or members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, sovereign credit ratings reflect their economic alliance with the United States. Specifically, higher levels of direct investment and bilateral trade with the United States correlate with enhanced sovereign credit ratings. Conversely, for other countries, sovereign credit ratings primarily reflect the United States' political stance. This is evident when a lower human rights index, indicating serious human rights concerns perceived by the United States, results in a downgrade of the sovereign credit rating.