The Global Landscape of Colorectal cancer Incidence and Mortality in 2022 and Projections to 2045: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2022.

IF 1.6 Q4 ONCOLOGY

Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer Pub Date : 2026-04-13 DOI:10.1007/s12029-026-01465-3

Jiannan Tu, Lingling Zheng, Lilin Yan, Liangwen Shi, Zhixing Kuang

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Abstract

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC), ranking as the third most common cancer globally, poses a serious public health threat. Updated assessment of its geographic and temporal burden is crucial to understand evolving risk factors and CRC control strategy efficacy.

Methods: Data on CRC incidence and mortality in 2022 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized Incidence/Mortality rates (ASIRs/ASMRs) were calculated by sex, country, and region. Burden estimates by age group and CRC subsites were derived, and future projections for 2045 were modeled using global population forecasts.

Results: In 2022, an estimated 1,926,425 new CRC cases and 904,019 deaths occurred globally. CRC cases comprise 59.3% colon cancer, 37.9% rectal cancer, and 2.8% anal cancer. Age-specific analysis revealed that although the highest ASIR and ASMR were both observed in individuals aged ≥ 85 years (232.6 and 192.3 per 100,000, respectively), the highest number of CRC cases occurred in the 60-69 age group. East Asia accounted for 36.33% of global cases, with China alone contributing 26.84%. The highest ASIRs were observed in Australia/New Zealand (35.3 per 100,000), Europe (30.5), and North America (27.2), while the lowest ASIR was in Africa and South Asia. ASMRs mirrored the geographic patterns of ASIR, with Eastern Europe having the highest ASMRs (19.6 per 100,000 males) and South Asia the lowest (2.5 per 100,000 females). Moreover, rising CRC rates in transitioning economies and younger populations were noted. By 2045, the global CRC burden is projected to reach 3.28 million new cases and 1.66 million deaths, predominantly in very high and high Human Development Index (HDI) countries.

Conclusion: With the population aging and changing lifestyles, the burden of CRC is expected to increase, underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions, enhanced global surveillance, early screening programs, and precision prevention strategies to mitigate future incidence and mortality.

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2022年全球结直肠癌发病率和死亡率的格局以及到2045年的预测：来自GLOBOCAN 2022的新估计。

背景：结直肠癌（CRC）是全球第三大常见癌症，对公众健康构成严重威胁。对其地理和时间负担的最新评估对于了解不断变化的风险因素和CRC控制策略的有效性至关重要。方法：从GLOBOCAN数据库中提取2022年CRC发病率和死亡率数据。按性别、国家和地区计算年龄标准化发病率/死亡率（asir /ASMRs）。得出了按年龄组和结直肠癌亚位点估计的负担，并使用全球人口预测对2045年的未来预测进行了建模。结果：2022年，全球估计有1,926,425例新发CRC病例和904,019例死亡。结直肠癌病例占结肠癌的59.3%，直肠癌的37.9%，肛门癌的2.8%。年龄特异性分析显示，尽管ASIR和ASMR在≥85岁的人群中均最高（分别为232.6 / 100000和192.3 / 100000），但CRC病例数最高的人群是60-69岁年龄组。东亚占全球病例的36.33%，仅中国就占26.84%。ASIR最高的地区是澳大利亚/新西兰（35.3 / 100000）、欧洲（30.5 / 100000）和北美（27.2 / 100000），而ASIR最低的地区是非洲和南亚。asmr反映了ASIR的地理格局，东欧的asmr最高（每10万名男性19.6），南亚最低（每10万名女性2.5）。此外，还注意到转型经济体和年轻人口中CRC率的上升。到2045年，预计全球结直肠癌负担将达到328万新发病例和166万例死亡，主要发生在人类发展指数很高和很高的国家。结论：随着人口老龄化和生活方式的改变，结直肠癌的负担预计会增加，迫切需要有针对性的干预措施，加强全球监测，早期筛查计划和精确预防策略，以降低未来的发病率和死亡率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer ONCOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

121

期刊介绍： The Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer is a multidisciplinary medium for the publication of novel research pertaining to cancers arising from the gastrointestinal tract.The journal is dedicated to the most rapid publication possible.The journal publishes papers in all relevant fields, emphasizing those studies that are helpful in understanding and treating cancers affecting the esophagus, stomach, liver, gallbladder and biliary tree, pancreas, small bowel, large bowel, rectum, and anus. In addition, the Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer publishes basic and translational scientific information from studies providing insight into the etiology and progression of cancers affecting these organs. New insights are provided from diverse areas of research such as studies exploring pre-neoplastic states, risk factors, epidemiology, genetics, preclinical therapeutics, surgery, radiation therapy, novel medical therapeutics, clinical trials, and outcome studies.In addition to reports of original clinical and experimental studies, the journal also publishes: case reports, state-of-the-art reviews on topics of immediate interest or importance; invited articles analyzing particular areas of pancreatic research and knowledge; perspectives in which critical evaluation and conflicting opinions about current topics may be expressed; meeting highlights that summarize important points presented at recent meetings; abstracts of symposia and conferences; book reviews; hypotheses; Letters to the Editors; and other items of special interest, including:Complex Cases in GI Oncology: This is a new initiative to provide a forum to review and discuss the history and management of complex and involved gastrointestinal oncology cases. The format will be similar to a teaching case conference where a case vignette is presented and is followed by a series of questions and discussion points. A brief reference list supporting the points made in discussion would be expected.