Ecoclimatic Risk Assessment of False Codling Moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta) Using the CLIMEX Modelling Approach

Abstract

The false codling moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta [Meyrick]) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is native to sub-Saharan Africa. The moth has emerged as a global pest causing significant crop losses and trade disruptions. Future environmental changes may alter its distribution and intensify associated impacts. In this study, we used the CLIMEX software to assess the potential global distribution of T. leucotreta under current and projected mid-century (2060s). We considered representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and three general circulation models (ACCESS 1.0, CNRM-CM5, and GFDL-ESM2M) for the predictions. Our results indicate that tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, Central and South America, South and Southeast Asia, and Northern Australia show moderate (0 < EI < 30) to high (EI ≥ 30) habitat suitability. Temperate regions, including the Mediterranean basin, southern Europe, and parts of North America, exhibited moderate to high climatic suitability, whereas arid and high-latitude regions showed little to no suitability (EI = 0). Future projections indicate a poleward and regional expansion of suitability, particularly into Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings provide a scientific basis for strengthening quarantine regulations, surveillance networks, and targeted management strategies against this invasive pest.