Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Near-Surface Methane Concentration in Representative Oilfield Regions of Dongying City

Abstract

Oilfield production activities are a significant source of anthropogenic methane emissions, and understanding their emission patterns is crucial for effective methane reduction. This study focuses on Dongying City. Using the XGBoost model, we constructed a high-precision, full-coverage dataset for the period from 2023 to 2025. Based on this dataset, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and driving factors of methane concentrations in the oilfield regions. Temporally, methane concentrations exhibited a clear seasonal trend—higher in winter, lower in summer, and relatively stable in spring and autumn. Over the long term, monthly average concentrations showed a slow upward trend. Spatially, methane concentrations displayed pronounced heterogeneity. High-concentration zones were mainly located in the northern part of Hekou District with intensive oil and gas extraction, the north-eastern part of Dongying District with concentrated industrial activity, and the coastal areas of Kenli District characterized by wetlands. Guangrao County had the lowest and most evenly distributed concentrations. On a monthly scale, December recorded the highest values, while July and August showed the lowest. The influencing factors include anthropogenic activities such as oilfield production intensity, as well as natural factors like air temperature and soil temperature and moisture.