{"title":"On the Prediction of Risky Asset Market Based on a Long Memory Model","authors":"Xiaoxia Sun, Shiyi Zheng","doi":"10.1002/asmb.70081","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>In this paper, we focus on estimating some unknown parameters of a geometric bifractional Brownian motion. A geometric bifractional Brownian motion satisfies a stochastic differential equation driven by a bifractional Brownian motion. Firstly, using the method of quadratic variation for a Gaussian process and the maximum likelihood method, we give the estimators for the unknown parameters. Then, we prove the asymptotic properties of the estimators. Secondly, the Monte Carlo method is used for simulation. Compared with the single maximum likelihood estimation method, the results show that the method in this paper is effective, reliable, and superior. Finally, we conduct an empirical study of financial markets with real financial data from Danimer Scientific Inc-A (DNMR.N). By using path simulation, Euclidean distance and out-of-sample forecasting compared to other classical models, we effectively validate the superiority of the model in this paper in describing financial time series.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":55495,"journal":{"name":"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry","volume":"42 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asmb.70081","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this paper, we focus on estimating some unknown parameters of a geometric bifractional Brownian motion. A geometric bifractional Brownian motion satisfies a stochastic differential equation driven by a bifractional Brownian motion. Firstly, using the method of quadratic variation for a Gaussian process and the maximum likelihood method, we give the estimators for the unknown parameters. Then, we prove the asymptotic properties of the estimators. Secondly, the Monte Carlo method is used for simulation. Compared with the single maximum likelihood estimation method, the results show that the method in this paper is effective, reliable, and superior. Finally, we conduct an empirical study of financial markets with real financial data from Danimer Scientific Inc-A (DNMR.N). By using path simulation, Euclidean distance and out-of-sample forecasting compared to other classical models, we effectively validate the superiority of the model in this paper in describing financial time series.
期刊介绍：
ASMBI - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (formerly Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis) was first published in 1985, publishing contributions in the interface between stochastic modelling, data analysis and their applications in business, finance, insurance, management and production. In 2007 ASMBI became the official journal of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (www.isbis.org). The main objective is to publish papers, both technical and practical, presenting new results which solve real-life problems or have great potential in doing so. Mathematical rigour, innovative stochastic modelling and sound applications are the key ingredients of papers to be published, after a very selective review process.
The journal is very open to new ideas, like Data Science and Big Data stemming from problems in business and industry or uncertainty quantification in engineering, as well as more traditional ones, like reliability, quality control, design of experiments, managerial processes, supply chains and inventories, insurance, econometrics, financial modelling (provided the papers are related to real problems). The journal is interested also in papers addressing the effects of business and industrial decisions on the environment, healthcare, social life. State-of-the art computational methods are very welcome as well, when combined with sound applications and innovative models.
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