Is Rural America Older Than Urban America? The Answer Depends on the Decade

Abstract

Residents of rural America being older than urban residents is often viewed as a fundamental demographic difference between these two populations, with rural population aging seen as both a cause and consequence of economic and epidemiological hardships found in rural communities. However, it is currently unknown how historically rooted this demographic divide is and if it will persist in the future. This study asks one descriptive question: how has the age structure of rural and urban populations changed—or will change—between 1920 and 2060? Historical full count microdata, county‐level population counts, and multiple population projections are used to estimate the median age of rural and urban residents. From 1920 to 1960 individuals living in counties currently classified as rural were unexpectedly younger than their urban peers. Although rural populations were older from 1970 to 2020 and are likely to remain so in the near future, population projections suggest that urban median ages will catch up by 2060. Underlying compositional shifts in key age groups suggest that Baby Boomers played a major role in these age structure transitions. These findings provide necessary insights into the changing nature of who lives in rural America and how rural communities may need to adapt to aging populations.