A multi-model analysis of global pangolin trade from CITES records (1977–2024): Implications for species conservation

Abstract

Pangolins are the world’s most intensively traded mammals, primarily targeted for their scales, meat, and body parts. Consequently, international trade continues to threaten their existence, despite legal protection. Using CITES trade records from 1977 to 2024, we examined temporal, geographic, and taxonomic patterns of pangolin trade after rigorous data cleaning and standardization. Poisson regression generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model were employed to examine trade trends, accounting for overdispersion and excess zeros. Our findings reveal a long-term decline in reported legal trade, yet a marked shift in species and trade dynamics. Historically dominated by Asian species such as Manis javanica, M. crassicaudata, and M. pentadactyla, the trade has increasingly involved African species, including M. gigantea and M. tricuspis, in recent years. Since 2000, reported exports from and imports to China have declined significantly and are now comparable to those of other major countries, indicating substantial progress in controlling the pangolin trade. Following the 2016 uplisting of all eight species pangolin to Appendix I, the legal international trade declined sharply, although unreported trafficking may persist beyond CITES records. Overall, this shift reveals the depletion of Asian populations and the rising exploitation pressure on African species. Our findings highlight a clear shift in global pangolin trade, with African pangolins now replacing Asian pangolins, and highlight the vital need for stronger enforcement measures and monitoring that directly target commercial demand.