Burden of metabolic diseases, 1990-2023, with forecasts to 2030 for the Asia-Pacific region

IF 11.9 1区医学 Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Metabolism: clinical and experimental Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI:10.1016/j.metabol.2026.156575

Huai Zhang , Qin-Fen Chen , Gregory Y.H. Lip , Herbert Tilg , Luca Valenti , Virend K. Somers , Christopher D. Byrne , Giovanni Targher , Wah Yang , Christos S. Mantzoros , Anoop Misra , Amedeo Lonardo , Khalid Alswat , Ki-Chul Sung , Mark D. Muthiah , Xiao-Dong Zhou , Ming-Hua Zheng

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Abstract

Background

The latest data release from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 has enabled us to conduct an updated analysis of the trends and burdens of common metabolic diseases/risk factors from 1990 to 2023 in the Asia-Pacific region. We aimed to highlight disparities across geographic regions, over time, and by sex, while incorporating a predictive assessment of future trends through 2030.

Methods

We analyzed estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality for five common metabolic diseases and risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], high systolic blood pressure [SBP], high body mass index [BMI], high LDL cholesterol, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease [MASLD]). We also used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to project disease burdens through 2030.

Results

In 2023, in Asia-Pacific region, high SBP accounted for the largest burden (~138 million DALYs; 6.27 million deaths), followed by high BMI (~55 million DALYs; 1.33 million deaths), high LDL cholesterol (~53 million DALYs; 2.02 million deaths), T2DM (~49 million DALYs; 1.13 million deaths), and MASLD (~1.26 million DALYs; 47 thousand deaths). From 1990 to 2023, total DALYs increased 1.7- to 3.7- fold, with absolute burdens highest in China, India, and Indonesia, and relative burdens concentrated in Pacific Islands. Projected trends through 2023 suggest that the burden of all metabolic diseases/risk factors, except MASLD, is likely to continue rising, with high SBP remaining the dominant contributor.

Conclusion

Analysis of the GBD 2023 and 2030 projections show that metabolic diseases/risk factors will remain a persistent challenge for the Asia-Pacific region, with substantial increases in DALYs and mortality. These findings call for coordinated, intensified global actions to address interconnected metabolic conditions and can have positive implications for the United Nations' 2030 health-related goals.

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1990-2023年亚太地区代谢性疾病负担及2030年预测。

背景：全球疾病、损伤和风险因素负担研究（GBD） 2023发布的最新数据使我们能够对1990年至2023年亚太地区常见代谢性疾病/风险因素的趋势和负担进行最新分析。我们的目标是突出地理区域、时间和性别之间的差异，同时对2030年之前的未来趋势进行预测性评估。方法：我们分析了亚太地区五种常见代谢性疾病和危险因素（2型糖尿病[T2DM]、高收缩压[SBP]、高体重指数[BMI]、高LDL胆固醇和代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪变性肝病[MASLD]）的残疾调整生命年（DALYs）和死亡率估计。我们还使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型来预测到2030年的疾病负担。结果：2023年，亚太地区高SBP占最大负担（约1.38亿DALYs， 627万人死亡），其次是高BMI（约5500万DALYs， 133万人死亡）、高LDL胆固醇（约5300万DALYs， 202万人死亡）、T2DM（约4900万DALYs， 113万人死亡）和MASLD（约126万DALYs， 4.7万人死亡）。从1990年到2023年，DALYs总量增加了1.7至3.7倍，绝对负担最高的是中国、印度和印度尼西亚，相对负担集中在太平洋岛屿。预计到2023年的趋势表明，除MASLD外，所有代谢性疾病/危险因素的负担可能会继续上升，高收缩压仍然是主要因素。结论：对GBD 2023年和2030年预测的分析表明，代谢性疾病/危险因素仍将是亚太地区的持续挑战，DALYs和死亡率将大幅增加。这些研究结果呼吁采取协调、加强的全球行动，解决相互关联的代谢疾病，并可能对联合国2030年与健康相关的目标产生积极影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Metabolism: clinical and experimental 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

3.10%

发文量

310

审稿时长

16 days

期刊介绍： Metabolism upholds research excellence by disseminating high-quality original research, reviews, editorials, and commentaries covering all facets of human metabolism. Consideration for publication in Metabolism extends to studies in humans, animal, and cellular models, with a particular emphasis on work demonstrating strong translational potential. The journal addresses a range of topics, including: - Energy Expenditure and Obesity - Metabolic Syndrome, Prediabetes, and Diabetes - Nutrition, Exercise, and the Environment - Genetics and Genomics, Proteomics, and Metabolomics - Carbohydrate, Lipid, and Protein Metabolism - Endocrinology and Hypertension - Mineral and Bone Metabolism - Cardiovascular Diseases and Malignancies - Inflammation in metabolism and immunometabolism