CoastXplain: Explainable, Unsupervised Time-Series Modeling of Coastline Changes

Abstract

Due to changes in global climate, coastal erosion is a common phenomenon, leading to flooding, habitat loss, property damage, and economic impacts. Large-scale automatic monitoring of coastlines is feasible by processing satellite images with Artificial Intelligence (AI) models; however, it is often constrained by scarce labels and model opacity. We present an explainable, fully unsupervised framework that first converts multi-year Sentinel-2 image series into pixel-wise land–water maps with attached model certainty and then discovers change patterns in the temporal structures of these land-water masks over a specified study period. Throughout the pipeline, we used the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), computed from Sentinel-2 Green (B3) and NIR (B8), as our primary spectral indicator of surface water. We leverage two probabilistic models independently to select the best: (i) a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model on a bag-of-visual-words to discover interpretable topics (e.g., foam, water, vegetation) that provide semantic segmentation with transparency, and (ii) a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in pixel feature space to produce per-pixel probabilistic clustering and segmentation. Both models create multiple binary land-water segmentation maps from static images and then a single time-series evolution map from these multi-year land-water segmentation maps. The shoreline was automatically extracted as the boundary land pixels in binary maps with a threshold-based certainty score. We summarize changes with three methods and a score to define the amount of changes: the scene-level water fraction $\widehat {p}_{\mathrm {w}}$ , shoreline-normal displacement (SND) along fixed transects, and the low-confidence proportion ${\mathcal {U}}_{\tau }$ that localizes ambiguity to physically dynamic interfaces. A Hamming score was computed to provide a quick and quantitative overview of the time-series evolution over a 7-year period. The pipeline delivers clear coastlines, interpretable segmentation maps, and uncertainty visualizations to help domain experts in auditing decisions. The result is a label-free, scalable, and explainable workflow in which every decision is accompanied by a confidence score, supporting reliable coastal monitoring and downstream scientific and application-oriented use.