Hidden no more: A fifteen-year epidemiological assessment of HIV/AIDS in Libya and the urgent need for national action.

Abstract

Background: In Libya, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has worsened over the past 10 years because of political instability, dilapidated health infrastructure, social stigma, and limited access to testing and treatment. While public health has a growing interest in addressing HIV issues, there is limited and uncoordinated national-level research on HIV in Libya.Objective: This study aimed to analyse trends and risk factors of HIV/AIDS in Libya from 2011 to 2025.Methods: This study utilised a retrospective descriptive epidemiological design to describe HIV/AIDS trends in Libya over 15 years (2011-2025). Data were obtained from national health records, the World Health Organization, Libyan public reports, and UNAIDS. Variables of interest included incidence, prevalence, sex, age, geographic distributions, modes of transmission, and displacement status.Results: By 2025, an estimated 8 200 people will be living with HIV in Libya. Males made up 77.3% of confirmed cases, injection drug use was the most common transmission route at 45.2%, and the impacts were primarily in the 30 to 39-year age group. Displaced populations made up 34% of the cases. The large increase in cases was preceded by a government indication program for testing, and cases were then identified that had previously gone undiagnosed.Conclusions: While the patterns of HIV spread in Libya are alarming, we recommend an urgent scale-up of interventions similar to those in Rwanda. Mobile testing units, harm reduction programs, peer outreach, and community-based anti-stigma programs in high-risk communities all require immediate scale-up.