Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Future Projections of Crop Production Water Footprint Integrated With SWAP-WOFOST and ARIMA Models

IF 1.7 4区农林科学 Q2 AGRONOMY

Irrigation and Drainage Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI:10.1002/ird.70035

Zhao Chen, Jing Xue, Jiangtong Lin, Junfeng Chen, Lihong Cui

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of crop production water footprint (WF) at the regional scale is critical for optimizing agricultural water resource management. However, studies quantifying WF in the Hetao Irrigation District (HID) using distributed agro-hydrological models remain limited, and integration of WF quantification with time-series models for short-term forecasting and WF-driven planting optimization is still lacking. In this study, a calibrated SWAP-WOFOST model was employed to quantify the total water footprint (WF_total), blue water footprint (WF_blue) and green water footprint (WF_green) of spring wheat, spring maize and sunflower in the HID during 2000–2017. Temporal trends were analysed using time-series techniques, and the evolution of WF_total from 2018 to 2027 was projected using the ARIMA model. Spatial WF patterns were further mapped to optimize crop allocation. The results revealed that WF_blue for all crops exhibited a continuous upward trend during 2000–2017, which consistently exceeded WF_green that showed a declining trend. Projections indicated a sustained increase in WF_total from 2018 to 2027, with spring wheat demonstrating the highest growth rate. Following crop allocation optimization, WF_total for all crops decreased significantly, accompanied by enhanced water use efficiency. This study provides scientific insights for water-efficient crop placement strategies in arid irrigation regions.

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基于SWAP-WOFOST和ARIMA模型的作物生产水足迹时空动态及未来预测

在区域尺度上评估作物生产水足迹的时空动态对优化农业水资源管理具有重要意义。然而，利用分布式农业水文模型量化河套灌区水分流通量的研究仍然有限，并且缺乏将水分流通量量化与时间序列模型相结合，用于短期预测和水分驱动的种植优化。本研究采用校正后的SWAP-WOFOST模型，对2000-2017年青藏高原春小麦、春玉米和向日葵的总水足迹（WFtotal）、蓝水足迹（WFblue）和绿水足迹（WFgreen）进行量化。利用时间序列技术分析了时间趋势，并利用ARIMA模型预测了2018 - 2027年WFtotal的演变。进一步绘制WF空间格局，优化作物配置。结果表明：2000-2017年，所有作物的WFblue呈持续上升趋势，WFgreen呈持续下降趋势；预测显示，从2018年到2027年，世界粮食总产量持续增长，其中春小麦的增长率最高。作物配置优化后，各作物的总水分显著减少，水分利用效率显著提高。本研究为干旱灌区的节水作物种植策略提供了科学的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Irrigation and Drainage 农林科学-农艺学

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

10.50%

发文量

107

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Human intervention in the control of water for sustainable agricultural development involves the application of technology and management approaches to: (i) provide the appropriate quantities of water when it is needed by the crops, (ii) prevent salinisation and water-logging of the root zone, (iii) protect land from flooding, and (iv) maximise the beneficial use of water by appropriate allocation, conservation and reuse. All this has to be achieved within a framework of economic, social and environmental constraints. The Journal, therefore, covers a wide range of subjects, advancement in which, through high quality papers in the Journal, will make a significant contribution to the enormous task of satisfying the needs of the world’s ever-increasing population. The Journal also publishes book reviews.