Atmospheric dispersion and ecological risk assessment of hypothetical accidents at Kenya's first proposed nuclear power plant

IF 3.2 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Progress in Nuclear Energy Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI:10.1016/j.pnucene.2026.106294

Osamong Gideon Akou , Xuan Wang , Shuhuan Liu , Xinwei Liu , Guanghui Su , Ailing Zhang , Junfang Zhang , Minghua Lv , Lei Huang , Shanchao Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Kenya's nuclear energy ambitions require rigorous safety and environmental assessments for proposed sites such as the Kilifi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). This study models radiological consequences of a severe station blackout-induced LOCA using RASCAL (source term), HotSpot (atmospheric dispersion), and ERICA (ecological risk). Kilifi's coastal climate presents neutral stability (mean wind speed: 4.86 m/s) but complex dispersion behavior. The release was dominated by noble gases (75.6%) and iodine (24.2%). Peak Total Effective Dose (TED) reached 4.3 × 10⁻³ Sv under Class C conditions, with mitigation reducing TED by ∼99.9%. Terrain shielding reduced I-131 groundshine by over tenfold in urban areas. Raising release height from 50 m to 100 m reduced TED by 99%, with limited benefit above 200 m. Ecological risks were highest for Cs-137 (aquatic, RQ 66.9%) and Ru-106 (sediment, RQ 68.9%). HotSpot validation using Kincaid SF₆ data confirmed its conservative reliability. Findings inform Kenya's nuclear siting, emphasizing iodine protection, terrain-aware planning, and long-term environmental monitoring.

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肯尼亚首座拟建核电站假想事故的大气扩散和生态风险评估

肯尼亚的核能野心需要对Kilifi核电站（NPP）等拟议的地点进行严格的安全和环境评估。本研究使用RASCAL（源项）、HotSpot（大气色散）和ERICA（生态风险）对严重电站停电引起的LOCA的辐射后果进行了模拟。基利菲沿海气候表现为中性稳定性（平均风速4.86 m/s），但具有复杂的分散特性。释放的气体主要是惰性气体（75.6%）和碘（24.2%）。在C类条件下，峰值总有效剂量（TED）达到4.3 × 10−3 Sv，缓解使TED降低了~ 99.9%。在城市地区，地形屏蔽使I-131的地面光照减少了十倍以上。将释放高度从50米提高到100米，TED降低了99%，超过200米的效果有限。Cs-137（水生，RQ为66.9%）和Ru-106（泥沙，RQ为68.9%）的生态风险最高。使用Kincaid SF6数据进行热点验证，证实了其保守可靠性。研究结果为肯尼亚的核电站选址提供了参考，强调碘保护、地形意识规划和长期环境监测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Progress in Nuclear Energy 工程技术-核科学技术

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

14.80%

发文量

331

审稿时长

3.5 months

期刊介绍： Progress in Nuclear Energy is an international review journal covering all aspects of nuclear science and engineering. In keeping with the maturity of nuclear power, articles on safety, siting and environmental problems are encouraged, as are those associated with economics and fuel management. However, basic physics and engineering will remain an important aspect of the editorial policy. Articles published are either of a review nature or present new material in more depth. They are aimed at researchers and technically-oriented managers working in the nuclear energy field. Please note the following: 1) PNE seeks high quality research papers which are medium to long in length. Short research papers should be submitted to the journal Annals in Nuclear Energy. 2) PNE reserves the right to reject papers which are based solely on routine application of computer codes used to produce reactor designs or explain existing reactor phenomena. Such papers, although worthy, are best left as laboratory reports whereas Progress in Nuclear Energy seeks papers of originality, which are archival in nature, in the fields of mathematical and experimental nuclear technology, including fission, fusion (blanket physics, radiation damage), safety, materials aspects, economics, etc. 3) Review papers, which may occasionally be invited, are particularly sought by the journal in these fields.