Finding potential land use policies for transboundary river basin to resolve harsh land-population relationship under flood risks: Evidence from Lancang-Mekong River Basin

IF 6.6 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107977

Songhua Huan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Land-population relationship under flood risks in transboundary river basins is crucial for sustainable development and climate change-related natural disaster prevention, tightly linked to land use and land cover (LULC), yet the optimal land use policy remains unclear. This study takes the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) as a typical case, employing optimization and Ecosystem Service Valuation (ESV) methods to analyze land-population relationship from 2001 to 2018 and explore potential policy implications. The results show that: (1) Post-flood LULC in LMRB faced an average ESV reduction of approximately 0.03 USD/person, with forest loss being the primary driver, contributing a total of 0.04 USD/person in ecosystem services. Impervious surfaces and tree/shrub cover cropland each resulted in an additional 0.04 USD/person ESV decline. (2) In the baseline scenario, total ESV in the LMRB increased by about 6 % compared to the original post-flood LULC, mainly driven by a 11.23 % expansion of swamp areas. Under different policy scenarios, the double-strict policy (70 % basic needs and 110 % highest needs) achieved a 9.28 % ESV increase, slightly higher than the baseline. Double-relaxed policy (90 % basic needs and 130 % highest needs) only led to a 3.24 % increase. Mixed policies, such as strict basic needs (70 %) combined with relaxed highest needs (130 %), yielded a 9.73 % ESV increase, while the relaxed basic needs (90 %) and strict highest needs (110 %) scenario also resulted in a 3.24 % increase. (3) Under high urbanization requirements, ESV increased by 4 % but cropland area decreased by 20 %. In contrast, high agricultural requirements caused a 1.81 % ESV decrease despite a 10 % increase in cropland, as forest and swamp experienced significant reductions. The forest expansion scenario showed a slight ESV increase but a 20 % decrease in grassland. This study provides valuable insights and guidance for post-flood LULC management, addressing the challenging land-population relationship in transboundary river basins.

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寻找解决洪水风险下跨境河流流域土地-人口关系的潜在土地利用政策：来自澜沧江-湄公河流域的证据

跨界河流流域洪水风险下的土地-人口关系对可持续发展和气候变化相关的自然灾害预防至关重要，与土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）密切相关，但最优土地利用政策尚不明确。本研究以澜沧江-湄公河流域（LMRB）为典型案例，采用优化和生态系统服务价值（ESV）方法，分析2001 - 2018年澜沧江-湄公河流域土地-人口关系，探讨政策影响。结果表明：①洪水后LMRB生态系统服务价值平均减少约0.03 USD/人，其中森林损失是主要驱动因素，共贡献0.04 USD/人的生态系统服务价值；不透水地表和树木/灌木覆盖的农田均导致人均ESV额外下降0.04美元。(2)在基线情景下，LMRB的总ESV比原始洪水后LULC增加了约6 %，这主要是由于沼泽面积扩大了11.23 %。在不同政策情景下，双严格政策（70 %基本需求和110 %最高需求）实现了9.28 %的ESV增长，略高于基线。双宽松政策（90% %基本需求和130% %最高需求）只导致了3.24% %的增长。混合政策，如严格的基本需求（70 %）与宽松的最高需求（130 %）相结合，产生了9.73 %的ESV增长，而宽松的基本需求（90 %）和严格的最高需求（110 %）也导致了3.24 %的增长。(3)在高城市化要求下，ESV增加了4 %，耕地面积减少了20 %。相比之下，由于森林和沼泽的显著减少，尽管农田的ESV增加了10 %，但农业的高需求导致了1.81 %的ESV减少。在森林扩张情景下，ESV略有增加，而草地的ESV减少了20% %。该研究为解决跨界河流流域具有挑战性的土地-人口关系问题提供了有价值的见解和指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Land Use Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

13.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

553

期刊介绍： Land Use Policy is an international and interdisciplinary journal concerned with the social, economic, political, legal, physical and planning aspects of urban and rural land use. Land Use Policy examines issues in geography, agriculture, forestry, irrigation, environmental conservation, housing, urban development and transport in both developed and developing countries through major refereed articles and shorter viewpoint pieces.