Analysis of conflict risk causes in urban expressway diverging areas: considering unobserved heterogeneity and their interactions

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI:10.1080/19427867.2025.2537173

Jiaqiang Wen , Nengchao Lyu , Yanyong Guo , Jianatihan Jinsihan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Urban expressway diverging areas face higher conflict risks due to complex weaving movements. This study aims to explore the determinants influencing conflict risk in diverging areas. High-resolution trajectory data totaling 32.1 hours from six expressway diverging areas in Wuhan were collected using unmanned aerial vehicles. By incorporating vehicle kinematic information, a new method for identifying traffic conflicts in a two-dimensional plane was defined. Based on this, a correlated random parameters multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means was developed by relaxing fixed constraints on the means of random parameters, and allowing potential correlations among random parameters. The results show that exit configuration, speed difference between lanes, acceleration, and vehicle in exit significantly influence conflict risk, with their estimates exhibiting random effects. The influencing factors for lateral and longitudinal conflict risks differ. The findings provide insights for improving traffic safety in expressway diverging areas.

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城市快速路分流区冲突风险成因分析：考虑未观测异质性及其相互作用

城市快速路分流区由于交织运动复杂，面临着较高的冲突风险。本研究旨在探讨影响不同地区冲突风险的决定因素。利用无人机采集武汉市6个高速公路分流区32.1小时高分辨率轨迹数据。结合车辆运动信息，定义了一种二维平面上的交通冲突识别方法。在此基础上，通过放宽随机参数均值的固定约束，允许随机参数之间存在潜在的相关性，建立了具有均值异质性的相关随机参数多项logit模型。结果表明，出口配置、车道间速度差、加速度和出口车辆对冲突风险有显著影响，且它们的估计具有随机效应。横向和纵向冲突风险的影响因素不同。研究结果为提高高速公路分流区交通安全水平提供了参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

14.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Transportation Letters: The International Journal of Transportation Research is a quarterly journal that publishes high-quality peer-reviewed and mini-review papers as well as technical notes and book reviews on the state-of-the-art in transportation research. The focus of Transportation Letters is on analytical and empirical findings, methodological papers, and theoretical and conceptual insights across all areas of research. Review resource papers that merge descriptions of the state-of-the-art with innovative and new methodological, theoretical, and conceptual insights spanning all areas of transportation research are invited and of particular interest.