Top 50 List for 2025

IF 3.7 2区物理与天体物理 Q1 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE

Acta Astronautica Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI:10.1016/j.actaastro.2025.12.035

Darren McKnight , Erin Dale , Joe Cassady , Andy Ratcliffe , Satomi Kawamoto , Alessandro Rossi , Dmitriy Grishko

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The growth of orbital debris in number and mass in low Earth orbit (LEO) has been a subject of analysis for decades. The global community established the 25-yr debris mitigation rule 20–25 years ago and at that time many started assembling long lists of number, mass, and nationality of abandoned hardware. In 2020, a team of 19 experts from 13 countries assembled to create a definitive list of 50 objects that would most likely directly drive debris growth in LEO. This list was provided as a “priority list” for active debris removal (ADR) operations. Since 2020, continued accumulation of derelict objects coupled with the rapid increase of operational satellites has occurred. This combination has motivated the authors to update the 2020 Top 50 List. The new list considers (a) aggregate collision risk (i.e., probability of collision x consequence) since January 1, 2022, (b) orbital persistence of fragments (if a collision occurs), (c) proximity to existing altitudes where aggregate statistical risk of the population is the largest (meaning clusters centered around 775 km, 840 km, 1000 km, and 1400 km), (d) mass of object, and (e) coupling between removing objects on the list.

The paper is enabled through the application of new analytic tools created by LeoLabs based on empirical observations of close approaches in LEO merged with open-source tagging of objects in the public catalogue with known masses. It is important to note the coauthors abide by the philosophy that many viable models can be used to derive the top 50 objects to be removed from LEO. The benefit of the current approach applies a team approach to adjusting filters to a single model; however, the implication is not that this model is the only way to select the top 50 objects. In essence, one of the most critical aspects of any attempt to identify the objects whose retrieval will decrease the debris-generating potential in LEO is to identify key features of objects such as mass, probability of collision (especially with other massive objects), altitude, etc. A comparison of the 2020 Top 50 List and the new 2025 Top 50 List is provided to illuminate key lessons for debris hazard evolution and to motivate operationalization of ADR.

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2025年全球50强榜单

近地轨道（LEO）轨道碎片数量和质量的增长几十年来一直是一个分析的主题。国际社会在20-25年前制定了25年碎片缓减规则，当时许多人开始收集废弃硬件的数量、质量和国籍的长清单。2020年，一个由来自13个国家的19名专家组成的团队聚集在一起，列出了最有可能直接导致近地轨道碎片增长的50个物体的最终清单。该列表作为主动碎片清除（ADR）操作的“优先列表”提供。自2020年以来，废弃物体持续积累，同时运行卫星迅速增加。这种结合促使作者更新了2020年50强榜单。新清单考虑(a)自2022年1月1日以来的总碰撞风险（即碰撞概率x后果），(b)碎片的轨道持久性（如果发生碰撞），(c)接近现有高度，人口的总统计风险最大（意味着围绕775公里，840公里，1000公里和1400公里的集群），(d)物体质量，以及(e)删除列表上物体之间的耦合。本文是通过应用LeoLabs创建的新分析工具实现的，该工具基于对LEO中近距离方法的经验观察，并结合了公共目录中已知质量对象的开源标记。值得注意的是，合著者遵循的理念是，许多可行的模型可以用来推导出从LEO中移除的前50个物体。当前方法的好处是采用团队方法来调整过滤器以适应单个模型；然而，这并不是说这个模型是选择前50个对象的唯一方法。从本质上讲，任何识别物体的尝试中，最关键的一个方面是识别物体的关键特征，如质量、碰撞概率（特别是与其他大质量物体）、高度等。通过对2020年50强名单和新的2025年50强名单的比较，阐明了碎片危害演变的关键教训，并激励ADR的运作。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Acta Astronautica 工程技术-工程：宇航

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

22.90%

发文量

599

审稿时长

53 days

期刊介绍： Acta Astronautica is sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Content is based on original contributions in all fields of basic, engineering, life and social space sciences and of space technology related to: The peaceful scientific exploration of space, Its exploitation for human welfare and progress, Conception, design, development and operation of space-borne and Earth-based systems, In addition to regular issues, the journal publishes selected proceedings of the annual International Astronautical Congress (IAC), transactions of the IAA and special issues on topics of current interest, such as microgravity, space station technology, geostationary orbits, and space economics. Other subject areas include satellite technology, space transportation and communications, space energy, power and propulsion, astrodynamics, extraterrestrial intelligence and Earth observations.