Forecasting rehabilitation needs in emerging economies: A multi-country analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

IF 8.7 1区医学 Q1 NURSING

International Journal of Nursing Studies Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI:10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2026.105345

Lang Chen , Chuwei Tian , Zhongkai Bian , Lijuan Gao , Wenwen Jiang , Hang Wu , Liu Shi , Qi Yong H. Ai , Yunfeng Rui , Hongxing Wang , Jinyu Wang

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Abstract

Background

Emerging economies, represented by BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russian Federation and South Africa), have a substantial impact on the global rehabilitation needs. However, the rehabilitation needs of BRICS countries remain unascertained. This study aimed to explore the rehabilitation needs of the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trend of rehabilitation needs.

Methods

Relevant data pertaining to eight condition categories (encompassing 27 individual conditions) requiring rehabilitation were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The joinpoint regression models were employed to calculate average annual percentage changes to quantify trends in age-standardized rates. The autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict rehabilitation needs until 2036.

Results

The number of prevalent cases of total conditions requiring rehabilitation increased from 634 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 608–664) in 1990 to 1.093 billion (95% UI 1.056–1.135) in 2021, an increase of 72.2%. The years lived with disability counts of total conditions increased from 79 million (95% UI 60–101) in 1990 to 147 million (95% UI 112–189) in 2021, an increase of 85.6%. Since 1990, the age-standardized prevalence rates of total rehabilitation needs have been decreasing in all BRICS countries. The number of people needing rehabilitation will continue to grow, with 1.469 billion people in BRICS countries requiring rehabilitation services by 2036. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation in BRICS countries was musculoskeletal disorders with about 676 million people (95% UI 630–716) across eight condition categories, and hearing loss with 232 million people (95% UI 205–260) among 27 individual conditions.

Conclusions

The need for rehabilitation in BRICS countries has increased substantially over the past 32 years and will continue to increase until 2036. Although the rehabilitation needs are based on modeled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we strongly recommend that rehabilitation services targeting these needs, particularly for musculoskeletal disorders and hearing loss within sensory impairments, be integrated into primary care systems.

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预测新兴经济体的康复需求：基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的多国分析

以金砖国家（巴西、中国、印度、俄罗斯联邦和南非）为代表的新兴经济体对全球重建需求产生了重大影响。然而，金砖国家的复苏需求仍未确定。本研究旨在探讨1990 - 2021年金砖国家的康复需求，并预测康复需求的趋势。方法从2021年全球疾病负担研究中检索需要康复的8种疾病类别（包括27种个体疾病）的相关数据。采用结合点回归模型计算平均年百分比变化，量化年龄标准化率的趋势。采用自回归综合移动平均模型预测至2036年的康复需求。结果康复总病例数从1990年的6.34亿例（95%不确定区间[UI] 608 ~ 664）增加到2021年的10.93亿例（95%不确定区间[UI] 1.056 ~ 1.135），增长72.2%。总状况下的残疾生活年数从1990年的7900万（95% UI 60-101）增加到2021年的1.47亿（95% UI 112-189），增加了85.6%。自1990年以来，在所有金砖国家中，完全康复需求的年龄标准化患病率一直在下降。需要康复的人数将继续增长，到2036年，金砖国家需要康复服务的人数将达到14.69亿。在金砖国家，对康复需求贡献最大的是肌肉骨骼疾病，在8种疾病类别中约有6.76亿人（95% UI 630-716），以及听力损失，在27种疾病类别中有2.32亿人（95% UI 205-260）。在过去的32年里，金砖国家对康复的需求大幅增加，并将持续增加到2036年。虽然康复需求是基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的模型估计，但我们强烈建议将针对这些需求的康复服务，特别是针对感觉障碍中的肌肉骨骼疾病和听力损失的康复服务纳入初级保健系统。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Nursing Studies 医学-护理

CiteScore

15.00

自引率

2.50%

发文量

181

审稿时长

21 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Nursing Studies (IJNS) is a highly respected journal that has been publishing original peer-reviewed articles since 1963. It provides a forum for original research and scholarship about health care delivery, organisation, management, workforce, policy, and research methods relevant to nursing, midwifery, and other health related professions. The journal aims to support evidence informed policy and practice by publishing research, systematic and other scholarly reviews, critical discussion, and commentary of the highest standard. The IJNS is indexed in major databases including PubMed, Medline, Thomson Reuters - Science Citation Index, Scopus, Thomson Reuters - Social Science Citation Index, CINAHL, and the BNI (British Nursing Index).