Epidemiology of Parkinson’s disease – Global burden of disease research from 1990 to 2021 and future trend predictions

Abstract

Background

Parkinson’s disease (PD), a common neurodegenerative disorder, severely affects patients’ quality of life. This study aims to update the assessment of PD’s prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability–adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. Analyses were conducted at Socio-demographic Index (SDI), global, regional, and national levels, stratified by gender and age.

Methods

PD data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database was extracted. Trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of PD were assessed, and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated during the study period. Analyses were done by gender, age, GBD region, and SDI quintiles, using R statistical software for analyses and mapping.

Results

In 2021, the global burden of PD remained substantial. The number of prevalent PD cases grew from 3,148,394.56 in 1990 to 11,767,271.97 in 2021 (a 2.74-fold increase). Incident cases rose from 417,134.69 to 1,335,142.12 (a 2.20-fold increase). Males exhibited higher prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates than females across almost all age groups. High-SDI regions had higher ASPR, ASIR, and ASDR values than low-SDI regions. Countries and regions in Asia, particularly China and Japan, exhibited among the highest ASPR and ASIR globally. Projections indicate global ASPR and ASIR will continue to rise substantially over the next three decades (to 2050), with males exhibiting a faster rate of increase than females, while the ASMR is predicted to remain essentially stable.

Conclusion

This study systematically delineates the epidemiological landscape, temporal trends, and burden profiles of Parkinson’s disease across global, regional, gender-stratified, and age-specific populations, providing an evidence-based framework to guide precision prevention strategies and optimize healthcare resource prioritization.