Modeling the Potential Public Health Impact of Updated COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in Singapore: Epidemiological Data Update.

IF 3.4 Q2 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM

Pulmonary Therapy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI:10.1007/s41030-025-00340-z

Karan Thakkar, Moe H Kyaw, Iustina Chirila, Carlos Fernando Mendoza, Josie Dodd, Ben Yarnoff

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Abstract

Introduction: This study estimated the potential public health impact of alternative COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Singapore.

Methods: The outcomes of alternative vaccination strategies using a Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine updated to the latest circulating strain were estimated using a combined decision tree-Markov cohort model. The model was previously used to estimate the impact of vaccination based on epidemiological data from 2021/22 and vaccine coverage data from 2022/23. It has now been updated with epidemiology data from 2023/24 and an assumed vaccine coverage of 20%. Age-specific inputs were derived from local epidemiological data and published sources. The model projected health outcomes (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic outcomes (direct medical costs and productivity losses) across different age and risk subgroups.

Results: Vaccinating individuals aged 60 and above, as well as individuals aged 6 months to 59 years with comorbidities, making them at high risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes, with a vaccine coverage of 20%, is projected to result in 14,099 fewer infections, 2668 fewer hospitalizations, and 21 fewer deaths in 1 year. This leads to a total estimated savings of SGD 21.3 million in direct medical costs and SGD 24.8 million in indirect costs. Increasing coverage to 50% has the potential to further increase deaths, hospitalizations, infections, and costs averted by 150%.

Conclusions: Although vaccination has a smaller impact on public health compared to the previous evaluation because of the updated epidemiology and lower estimated coverage, an updated vaccine can still have a public health and economic impact in Singapore.

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对新加坡更新的COVID-19疫苗接种策略的潜在公共卫生影响进行建模：流行病学数据更新

本研究估计了新加坡替代COVID-19疫苗接种策略的潜在公共卫生影响。方法：采用联合决策树-马尔可夫队列模型估计使用更新为最新流行毒株的辉瑞- biontech COVID-19疫苗替代疫苗接种策略的结果。该模型先前用于根据2021/22年的流行病学数据和2022/23年的疫苗覆盖率数据估计疫苗接种的影响。现在已经更新了2023/24年的流行病学数据，并假设疫苗覆盖率为20%。针对特定年龄的输入来自当地流行病学数据和已公布的来源。该模型预测了不同年龄和风险亚组的健康结果（病例、住院和死亡）和经济结果（直接医疗成本和生产力损失）。结果：接种60岁及以上人群，以及6个月至59岁有合并症的人群，使他们成为COVID-19严重结局的高风险人群，疫苗覆盖率为20%，预计1年内减少14099例感染，2668例住院，21例死亡。据估计，这将导致直接医疗费用节省2 130万新元，间接费用节省2 480万新元。将覆盖率提高到50%有可能使死亡、住院、感染和避免的费用进一步增加150%。结论：尽管由于流行病学的更新和较低的估计覆盖率，与之前的评估相比，疫苗接种对公共卫生的影响较小，但更新的疫苗仍然可以对新加坡的公共卫生和经济产生影响。

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来源期刊

Pulmonary Therapy Medicine-Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Aims and Scope Pulmonary Therapy is an international, open access, peer-reviewed (single-blind), and rapid publication journal. The scope of the journal is broad and will consider all scientifically sound research from pre-clinical, clinical (all phases), observational, real-world, and health outcomes research around the use of pulmonary therapies, devices, and surgical techniques. Areas of focus include, but are not limited to: asthma; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; pulmonary hypertension; cystic fibrosis; lung cancer; respiratory tract disorders; allergic rhinitis and other respiratory allergies; influenza, pneumococcal infection, respiratory syncytial virus and other respiratory infections; and inhalers and other device therapies. The journal is of interest to a broad audience of pharmaceutical and healthcare professionals and publishes original research, reviews, case reports/series, trial protocols and short communications such as commentaries and editorials. Pulmonary Therapy will consider all scientifically sound research be it positive, confirmatory or negative data. Submissions are welcomed whether they relate to an international and/or a country-specific audience, something that is crucially important when researchers are trying to target more specific patient populations. This inclusive approach allows the journal to assist in the dissemination of quality research, which may be considered of insufficient interest by other journals. Rapid Publication The journal’s publication timelines aim for a rapid peer review of 2 weeks. If an article is accepted it will be published 3–4 weeks from acceptance. The rapid timelines are achieved through the combination of a dedicated in-house editorial team, who manage article workflow, and an extensive Editorial and Advisory Board who assist with peer review. This allows the journal to support the rapid dissemination of research, whilst still providing robust peer review. Combined with the journal’s open access model this allows for the rapid, efficient communication of the latest research and reviews, fostering the advancement of pulmonary therapies. Open Access All articles published by Pulmonary Therapy are open access. Personal Service The journal’s dedicated in-house editorial team offer a personal “concierge service” meaning authors will always have an editorial contact able to update them on the status of their manuscript. The editorial team check all manuscripts to ensure that articles conform to the most recent COPE, GPP and ICMJE publishing guidelines. This supports the publication of ethically sound and transparent research. Digital Features and Plain Language Summaries Pulmonary Therapy offers a range of additional features designed to increase the visibility, readership and educational value of the journal’s content. Each article is accompanied by key summary points, giving a time-efficient overview of the content to a wide readership. Articles may be accompanied by plain language summaries to assist readers who have some knowledge of, but not in-depth expertise in, the area to understand the scientific content and overall implications of the article. The journal also provides the option to include various types of digital features including animated abstracts, video abstracts, slide decks, audio slides, instructional videos, infographics, podcasts and animations. All additional features are peer reviewed to the same high standard as the article itself. If you consider that your paper would benefit from the inclusion of a digital feature, please let us know. Our editorial team are able to create high-quality slide decks and infographics in-house, and video abstracts through our partner Research Square, and would be happy to assist in any way we can. For further information about digital features, please contact the journal editor (see ‘Contact the Journal’ for email address), and see the ‘Guidelines for digital features and plain language summaries’ document under ‘Submission guidelines’. For examples of digital features please visit our showcase page https://springerhealthcare.com/expertise/publishing-digital-features/ Publication Fees Upon acceptance of an article, authors will be required to pay the mandatory Rapid Service Fee of €4500/ $5100/ £3650. The journal will consider fee discounts and waivers for developing countries and this is decided on a case by case basis. Peer Review Process Upon submission, manuscripts are assessed by the editorial team to ensure they fit within the aims and scope of the journal and are also checked for plagiarism. All suitable submissions are then subject to a comprehensive single-blind peer review. Reviewers are selected based on their relevant expertise and publication history in the subject area. The journal has an extensive pool of editorial and advisory board members who have been selected to assist with peer review based on the afore-mentioned criteria. At least two extensive reviews are required to make the editorial decision, with the exception of some article types such as Commentaries, Editorials, and Letters which are generally reviewed by one member of the Editorial Board. Where reviewer recommendations are conflicted, the editorial board will be contacted for further advice and a presiding decision. Manuscripts are then either accepted, rejected or authors are required to make major or minor revisions (both reviewer comments and editorial comments may need to be addressed). Once a revised manuscript is re-submitted, it is assessed along with the responses to reviewer comments and if it has been adequately revised it will be accepted for publication. Accepted manuscripts are then copyedited and typeset by the production team before online publication. Appeals against decisions following peer review are considered on a case-by-case basis and should be sent to the journal editor. Preprints We encourage posting of preprints of primary research manuscripts on preprint servers, authors’ or institutional websites, and open communications between researchers whether on community preprint servers or preprint commenting platforms. Posting of preprints is not considered prior publication and will not jeopardize consideration in our journals. Authors should disclose details of preprint posting during the submission process or at any other point during consideration in one of our journals. Once the manuscript is published, it is the author’s responsibility to ensure that the preprint record is updated with a publication reference, including the DOI and a URL link to the published version of the article on the journal website. Please follow the link for further information on preprint sharing: https://www.springer.com/gp/authors-editors/journal-author/journal-author-helpdesk/submission/1302#c16721550 Copyright Pulmonary Therapy''s content is published open access under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License, which allows users to read, copy, distribute, and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited. The author assigns the exclusive right to any commercial use of the article to Springer. For more information about the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License, click here: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0. Contact For more information about the journal, including pre-submission enquiries, please contact christopher.vautrinot@springer.com.