Optimizing county-level land use for sustainable photovoltaic development in China: A multi-scenario analysis

Abstract

Land scarcity in China intensifies conflicts between photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and agricultural, ecological, and urban land uses. This study addresses the gap in county-level research by proposing a novel framework integrating land-type clustering, multi-objective optimization, and geospatial simulation to evaluate sustainable land use under PV expansion scenarios. Analyzing 562 counties in central and eastern China, counties are categorized into woodland-dominant, farmland-dominant, urban-dominant, and balanced types. Three scenarios are assessed: PV development (PV), business-as-usual (BS), and low-carbon emission (CE). The PV scenario balances BS and CE, curbing carbon source expansion while protecting farmland—e.g., farmland in Cangnan (woodland-dominant), Sheyang (farmland-dominant), and Lingbao (balanced) counties increased by 1.09 %, 2.35 %, and 1.1 % versus CE. Farmland-dominant and balanced counties show high adaptability, with economic and environmental benefits rising 67 % and 37 %. Urban-dominant counties have limited PV potential, and woodland-dominant counties are unsuitable for large-scale PV, with total benefits dropping 1 % and ecological impacts rising. Medium-density PV (80 % coverage) maximizes returns, with a 20.25-year payback. Policies should prioritize PV on agricultural and construction lands in farmland-dominant and balanced counties, while protecting ecology in urban- and woodland-dominant ones to support carbon neutrality.