Impact of Wolbachia-containing mosquito release on dengue control: a systems dynamics approach for health policy development

Abstract

Background

This article examines the impact of the release of Wolbachia-infected population replacement mosquitoes as an innovative strategy for managing and controlling dengue in the Americas, using an approach based on the system dynamics methodology. The introduction of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes aims to reduce dengue transmission by interfering with the reproductive capacity of mosquitoes, thus limiting the spread of the virus.

Objective

the objective of this study is to analyze how this intervention affects not only the incidence of dengue but also the health care system, evaluating changes in the demand for medical services and the costs associated with treatment in health care institutions. Specifically, it looks at the cost per visit to an Epidemiologist, a Family Doctor, diagnostic tests, and hospitalization.

Methods

the study uses simulation scenarios to model the potential impact of the Wolbachia-based intervention in reducing dengue cases and its associated health and economic burden. The scenarios also assess the optimization of resources and improvements in the health system's response to epidemic outbreaks. The simulation model utilizes real data from the Americas region to enhance the accuracy and relevance of the results.

Conclusion

The results the potential of the release of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes to significantly mitigate the health and economic burden of dengue, with a maximum saving of 60.15% in the best simulation scenario. The approach not only highlights scientific innovation but also demonstrates its potential influence on public policy design. The findings support the implementation of sustainable strategies to maximize the benefits of this intervention and ensure its effective integration into public health programs, contributing to better long-term dengue management.