RCEP and sectoral development in ASEAN less developed countries

Abstract

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to reshape trade, investment, and sectoral dynamics across Asia, yet its implications for less-developed ASEAN members remain underexplored. Existing studies often rely on econometric modeling, but the recent entry into force of RCEP in 2022 limits their ability to capture emerging structural trajectories. This paper provides an early structural mapping of five economies—Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam—selected as ASEAN's less-developed members. Although only Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are formally classified by the United Nations as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Brunei and Vietnam are included due to structural vulnerabilities that constrain diversification and resilience. Using 2009–2023 data, the paper traces long-term dynamics through a comparative exploratory approach. The findings reveal pronounced divergence: Vietnam and Brunei exhibit industrial and services-led growth supported by high-tech and ICT-oriented FDI and export diversification, while Cambodia and Laos remain largely agriculture-based with limited diversification; Myanmar shows moderate but uneven diversification. Early incorporation into RCEP offers these countries potential benefits through expanded market access, regional integration, and investment inflows. For Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, targeted policies in infrastructure, workforce development, and export diversification will be critical to fully leverage these opportunities.