Scenario-Focused Decision Analysis: Discussion and Research Questions

Abstract

Scenarios have been used in risk management for many years, first in scenario planning to identify risks and their possible impacts, which may then be explored using quantitative risk analysis. Qualitative scenario planning has been used in supporting decision-making and strategic deliberations generally, and as a tool in problem formulation for quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) studies. Until relatively recently, however, scenario thinking has not been more fully combined with quantitative MCDA studies. There are issues to overcome in forming meaningful quantitative comparisons between scenarios and in presenting the results to decision-makers in ways that help them reach a conclusion which they judge to be requisite. This paper discusses these issues and offers a research agenda.