Framework for the assessment of ship hull girder reliability and related sensitivity analysis considering accidental damage and ageing

IF 5.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Marine Structures Pub Date : 2026-03-15 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI:10.1016/j.marstruc.2025.103986

Krzysztof Woloszyk , Jakub Montewka , Floris Goerlandt , Bruno Sudret

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The present study proposes a comprehensive framework for assessing the reliability of a ship hull girder and its sensitivity to key input variables, with particular consideration of accidental hull damage and age-related corrosion. To this end, the physics-based model used to compute the ultimate strength is substituted with a surrogate model based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion. The reliability problem is formulated by incorporating both still-water and wave-induced bending loads. The effects of various parameters, including vessel age (which is associated with corrosion progression), operational region, loading condition, and accidental damage, are systematically examined. The analysis reveals that ship size, operational region, and the specific damage scenario significantly influence the probability of hull failure, thereby highlighting the need for further investigation. The proposed framework offers potential application in risk-based ship design.

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考虑意外损伤和老化的船体梁可靠性评估框架及敏感性分析

本研究提出了一个全面的框架来评估船体梁的可靠性及其对关键输入变量的敏感性，特别是考虑意外船体损伤和与年龄相关的腐蚀。为此，将计算极限强度的物理模型替换为基于多项式混沌展开的代理模型。可靠性问题是通过结合静水和波浪弯曲载荷来制定的。系统地检查了各种参数的影响，包括容器年龄（与腐蚀进展有关）、操作区域、加载条件和意外损坏。分析表明，船舶尺寸、作战区域和具体损伤情景对船体失效概率有显著影响，因此强调了进一步研究的必要性。提出的框架在基于风险的船舶设计中具有潜在的应用前景。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Marine Structures 工程技术-工程：海洋

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

157

审稿时长

6.4 months

期刊介绍： This journal aims to provide a medium for presentation and discussion of the latest developments in research, design, fabrication and in-service experience relating to marine structures, i.e., all structures of steel, concrete, light alloy or composite construction having an interface with the sea, including ships, fixed and mobile offshore platforms, submarine and submersibles, pipelines, subsea systems for shallow and deep ocean operations and coastal structures such as piers.