Association of atherogenic index of plasma baselines and trajectories with the progression from prediabetes to diabetes

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q3 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Journal of diabetes and its complications Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI:10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2025.109238

Yongsheng Zhang , Wenqi Hu , Dawei Wang , Hongyu Zhang , Guang Zhang

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Abstract

Background

The atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) is recognized as a robust predictor of cardiovascular outcomes and diabetes incidence. However, no studies have comprehensively investigated the impact of baseline AIP levels and longitudinal AIP trajectories on diabetes progression in patients with prediabetes.

Methods

After data inclusion and exclusion, this retrospective cohort study included 16,411 patients with prediabetes undergoing ≥3 health examinations (2019–2024). Latent Class Trajectory Modeling characterized longitudinal AIP trajectory patterns, and Cox proportional-hazards models evaluated associations of baseline AIP quartiles and trajectory groups with diabetes progression.

Results

During a mean 4-year follow-up (65,644 person-years), 14.14 % patients with prediabetes (2320) progressed to diabetes. Baseline AIP quartiles showed a graded relationship with diabetes progression risk. Three AIP trajectories were identified: the low plateau trajectory (N = 4422, 26.95 %), the medium decreasing trajectory (N = 8183, 49.86 %), and the high decreasing trajectory (N = 3806, 23.19 %). Compared to the low plateau trajectory, the medium decreasing trajectory, and the high decreasing trajectory exhibited progressively elevated diabetes risk in the fully adjusted model (HR = 1.42, 95 % CI: 1.22–1.65 and HR = 2.26, 95 % CI: 1.81–2.83, respectively).

Conclusion

Patients with higher baseline AIP and higher trajectories are associated with higher risks for the progression from prediabetes to diabetes.

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血浆动脉粥样硬化指数基线和轨迹与糖尿病前期发展到糖尿病的关系

血浆动脉粥样硬化指数（AIP）被认为是心血管结局和糖尿病发病率的可靠预测指标。然而，目前还没有研究全面调查基线AIP水平和纵向AIP轨迹对糖尿病前期患者糖尿病进展的影响。方法经资料纳入和排除后，本回顾性队列研究纳入了16,411例接受≥3次健康检查的糖尿病前期患者（2019-2024年）。潜在类别轨迹模型表征了纵向AIP轨迹模式，Cox比例风险模型评估了基线AIP四分位数和轨迹组与糖尿病进展的关系。结果在平均4年的随访期间（65,644人年），14.14%的糖尿病前期患者（2320人）进展为糖尿病。基线AIP四分位数与糖尿病进展风险呈分级关系。AIP有3种轨迹：低平台轨迹（N = 4422, 26.95%）、中等下降轨迹（N = 8183, 49.86%）和高下降轨迹（N = 3806, 23.19%）。与低平台轨迹相比，中度下降轨迹和高下降轨迹在完全调整模型中表现出逐渐升高的糖尿病风险（HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22-1.65, HR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.81-2.83）。结论基线AIP越高，病程越长，糖尿病前期发展为糖尿病的风险越高。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of diabetes and its complications 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

3.30%

发文量

153

审稿时长

16 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Diabetes and Its Complications (JDC) is a journal for health care practitioners and researchers, that publishes original research about the pathogenesis, diagnosis and management of diabetes mellitus and its complications. JDC also publishes articles on physiological and molecular aspects of glucose homeostasis. The primary purpose of JDC is to act as a source of information usable by diabetes practitioners and researchers to increase their knowledge about mechanisms of diabetes and complications development, and promote better management of people with diabetes who are at risk for those complications. Manuscripts submitted to JDC can report any aspect of basic, translational or clinical research as well as epidemiology. Topics can range broadly from early prediabetes to late-stage complicated diabetes. Topics relevant to basic/translational reports include pancreatic islet dysfunction and insulin resistance, altered adipose tissue function in diabetes, altered neuronal control of glucose homeostasis and mechanisms of drug action. Topics relevant to diabetic complications include diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy and nephropathy; peripheral vascular disease and coronary heart disease; gastrointestinal disorders, renal failure and impotence; and hypertension and hyperlipidemia.