A Petri net-based approach for modeling and analyzing the vulnerability of storage tanks under simultaneous fire and explosion hazards

Abstract

Fire and explosion accidents pose significant risks in the chemical and process industries. This study develops an integrated modeling framework to assess the vulnerability of oil storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards. The methodology integrates fault tree analysis for identifying contributing factors to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards, a hybrid Fuzzy Cognitive Maps-Bayesian Networks (FCM-BN) approach to quantify probabilistic relationships, graph theory metrics for criticality analysis, and Petri net simulations to model domino effect propagation. The FCM-BN model identifies three key contributors to domino effects, including domino effects from adjacent equipment, unprotected electrical equipment, and hot work and maintenance activities near leaks or flammable vapors. Graph theory analysis identifies Tank No. 4 as the most critical unit based on centrality metrics ("betweenness" and "closeness"), while Petri net simulations show that adjacent tanks, particularly Tanks No. 8 and No. 5, are highly vulnerable to explosion impacts. The framework provides both theoretical insights into domino effect mechanisms and practical tools for risk management, enabling targeted safety interventions and optimal resource allocation in storage facilities. These findings establish a foundation for preventing domino accidents through evidence-based vulnerability assessment and dynamic propagation modeling.