Spatial displacement of grain production drove carbon emissions within the meat supply chain in China

Abstract

Spatial displacement of grain production worldwide has contributed to an increased distance between food production and consumption, leading to growing carbon emissions in grain transportation. However, the spatial displacement of grain production also affects transport-related carbon emissions in the meat supply chain, which have been underestimated as diets change and the population grows. In this study, a model-based framework was developed to estimate the role of grain production displacement in transport-related carbon emissions within the meat supply chain in China at the prefecture level, alongside other key changes in the food systems, including transport development and dietary changes. Results indicate that emissions more than doubled, from 6.34 million tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO₂e) in 1990 to 14.99 Mt CO₂e in 2020. Grain production displacement contributed nearly 20 % of the increase in carbon emissions associated with transport in the meat supply chain over the study period. Changes in diets and population growth increased emissions of 6.11 Mt CO₂e and 2.44 Mt CO₂e, respectively. Transport infrastructure development helped offset 4.96 Mt CO₂e from transportation. Our study underscores the importance of taking better account of the negative environmental impacts of grain production displacement in land use and sustainable food system transitions, both in China and other regions.