Regional security structure and domestic political economy interests: Comparative analysis of belt and road initiative investments in the Philippines and Malaysia

Abstract

Why do regional states respond to BRI, especially when established financing mechanisms are in place? Second, what pathways shape the success and failure of BRI investments in these states? I compare Malaysia and the Philippines, from 2013 to 2023, which share common BRI infrastructure investments shaped by regional financing opportunities and domestic political economy interests. Employing a triangulation strategy with rich empirical sources, including interviews, policy statements, speeches, official statistics, and documents, I build on neoclassical realism and explain that the BRI provided new financing opportunities, defining the interaction capacity of Malaysia and the Philippines with China at the regional security structure. Meanwhile, the domestic political economy, combining elite leadership and historical institutional forces, determined BRI’s timing, objectives, and outcomes. The predominant success of BRI investments in Malaysia is attributed to a responsive market structure and continuity in elite interests. Conversely, the fragmented market structure in the Philippines, along with the interests of the military bureaucracy, impeded most BRI investments. This research contributes original knowledge in Asian International Relations and Comparative Political Economy literature by explaining how regional states' responses and outcomes are shaped towards financing opportunities of China.