Geographic disparities in the supply and adequacy of the general surgeon workforce across the United States: Projections to 2037

IF 2.3 3区医学 Q1 SURGERY

American journal of surgery Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-27 DOI:10.1016/j.amjsurg.2025.116685

Jason Silvestre , Sydney Seeger , Charles A. Reitman

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

This study analyzed US federal government projections on the supply and adequacy of general surgeons in the US to 2037.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study of general surgeons in the US utilizing the Health Workforce Simulation Model. Linear regression was used to analyze general surgeon workforce trends from 2025 to 2037.

Results

The national supply of general surgeons was projected to decrease by 2.8 % while national demand was projected to increase by 7.2 % increase over the study period. As a result, general surgeon workforce adequacy was projected to decrease from 95.0 % to 86.1 % (P < 0.001). By 2037, non-metropolitan areas were projected to have significantly lower general surgeon adequacy than metropolitan areas (42.2 % vs 113 %, P < 0.001). The states with the lowest projected general surgeon adequacies were Idaho (48.3 %), Arkansas (61.4 %), Mississippi (64.3 %).

Conclusion

Future strategies are needed to increase general surgeon supply in certain identified states and non-metropolitan areas.

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美国普通外科医生劳动力供应和充足性的地理差异：到2037年的预测。

背景：本研究分析了美国联邦政府对2037年美国普通外科医生的供应和充足性的预测。方法：这是一项利用卫生人力模拟模型对美国普通外科医生进行的横断面研究。采用线性回归分析2025 - 2037年普外科医生劳动力趋势。结果：在研究期间，全国普外科医生的供应预计将减少2.8%，而全国需求预计将增加7.2%。结果，普外科医生的劳动力充足率预计从95.0%下降到86.1% （P < 0.001）。到2037年，预计非大都市地区的普通外科医生数量明显低于大都市地区（42.2%比113%，P < 0.001）。预计普通外科医生不足率最低的州是爱达荷州（48.3%）、阿肯色州（61.4%）、密西西比州（64.3%）。结论：未来的策略需要在某些确定的州和非大都市地区增加普通外科医生的供应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

American journal of surgery 医学-外科

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

6.70%

发文量

570

审稿时长

56 days

期刊介绍： The American Journal of Surgery® is a peer-reviewed journal designed for the general surgeon who performs abdominal, cancer, vascular, head and neck, breast, colorectal, and other forms of surgery. AJS is the official journal of 7 major surgical societies* and publishes their official papers as well as independently submitted clinical studies, editorials, reviews, brief reports, correspondence and book reviews.