Modeling the emergence and impact of the noodle bowl: empirical evidence from Japanese FTAs

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence of the Noodle Bowl syndrome, a widely recognized phenomenon in East Asia in which multiple free trade agreements (FTAs) coexist in an uncoordinated manner and may offset one another’s benefits. It does so by examining how different factors, including Japan’s own agreements, affect both the implementation of bilateral FTAs and the extent to which these agreements are actually utilized. The results show that Japan is more likely to implement bilateral FTAs with partners that maintain broader liberal trade networks and have access to the Chinese market, and that greater use of the ASEAN–Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) further increases this likelihood, reflecting competitive and contagious dynamics in trade policymaking. The analysis also demonstrates that those bilateral FTAs are less likely to be utilized when the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is more actively used, providing empirical confirmation of the Noodle Bowl effect.