Bridging the circularity measurement gap: An integrated framework for modeling aligned with sustainable development goals

Abstract

The transition to circular economy (CE) is essential for addressing global challenges like resource scarcity and climate change. However, measuring circularity is complex due to the need to integrate environmental, economic, and social dimensions. This paper proposes a novel interdisciplinary framework that combines bibliometric analysis and system dynamics (SD) modeling to overcome this challenge. First, a bibliometric analysis of over 350 engineering studies identifies system dynamics as an emerging trend for CE assessment. Building on this, a system dynamics model is developed and applied to electronic waste supply chains, one of the world's fastest-growing waste streams. The model dynamically evaluates four key circularity indicators: carbon footprint, cost reduction index, job creation rate, and virgin material use. The results demonstrate the framework's ability to quantify significant benefits: a potential reduction of 160 million tons of CO₂e emissions, a threefold decrease in long-term costs compared to linear systems, and positive net job creation ratio of about 0.01 per ton collected. Furthermore, the framework is explicitly designed to track progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 12 (responsible consumption), SDG 8 (decent work), and SDG 13 (climate action). This research provides policymakers and businesses with a robust decision-support tool to simulate long-term impacts, prioritize high-value interventions, and balance trade-offs across sustainability dimensions, offering a actionable pathway toward resource-efficient economies.