Trends in the Prevalence and Incidence of Chronic Dialysis in Brazil (2006-2024) With Projections to 2039.

Abstract

Introduction: Brazil is the third country in the world with the highest number of dialysis patients. The increasing number of dialysis patients may reflect the state of renal care in the country. We analyzed and reported trends in the prevalence and incidence of chronic dialysis in Brazil since 2006, and projected estimates for 2039.

Methods: We compared trends in the prevalence and incidence rates of the Brazilian Dialysis annual Surveys since 2006. Monotonic trends were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test, and forecasting trends were performed using classical and exponential smoothing techniques until 2039.

Findings: The incidence and prevalence rates of dialysis in Brazil have shown an upward trend over the past 19 years. Prevalence rates have increased across all five regions of the country. Regarding incidence rates, only the northeast region of Brazil did not show a significant upward trend over the period. The projected incidence and prevalence rates for 2039 are 338 patients per million population (95% CI: 306-370) and 1225 per million population (95% CI: 1179-1271), respectively. This represents an increase of 35.8% and 50.9% over 15 years, respectively.

Discussion: The projected rise in the incidence and prevalence of chronic dialysis in Brazil over the next decade is worrisome. It underscores the need for more vigorous measures to manage the burden of chronic kidney disease in the country, aiming to mitigate its impact on health care and associated costs.