Has rural depopulation reduced agricultural land use efficiency? Mediating roles of cropland abandonment, scale operation, and cultivation structure

Abstract

Large-scale outmigration of the rural population has reshaped the patterns of agricultural land use. However, the pathways through which rural depopulation (RDP) affects the agricultural land use efficiency (ALUE) remain unclear. This study analyzes 220 prefecture-level cities in China that experienced significant rural population outflows between 2000 and 2020. A super-efficiency SBM model accounting for undesirable outputs is employed to measure ALUE, followed by an analysis of its spatiotemporal patterns. A panel Tobit model is then used to examine the relationship between RDP and ALUE. Finally, the mediating roles of cropland abandonment, scale operation, and cultivation structure are explored. The results show that ALUE has exhibited a fluctuating downward trend over time, with southern regions performing better than northern ones. RDP significantly hinders improvements in ALUE, and this relationship remains robust after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that cropland abandonment, scale operation, and cultivation structure serve as mediating factors in the impact of RDP on ALUE. This study highlights the importance of the dynamic evolution of human–land relationships in shaping land use performance. The findings offer valuable policy implications for improving land use efficiency under RDP and provide useful insights for governance practices in other regions facing similar challenges.