Predicting habitat suitability and range dynamics of the vulnerable Gazella cuvieri in Northwest Africa under climate change

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on biodiversity are becoming increasingly apparent, prompting the development of various methods to assess the vulnerability of species to current and projected climatic changes. This study uses the SpatialMaxEnt model to assess the present and future habitat suitability of the vulnerable Cuvier's gazelle in Northwest Africa under climate change scenarios. Key predictor variables such as coldest quarter precipitation (40.1%) and temperature seasonality (15.5%) were identified as the most influential factors in determining the present distribution of the species. The model showed high reliability (AUC = 0.961, CBI = 0.992) and predicted 587,825 km² (18.05% of the study area) as presently suitable habitat using the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity threshold. The 10th percentile training presence threshold yielded a smaller extent of 452,526 km² (14%), reflecting its more conservative nature. In both cases, highly suitable areas were concentrated in mountainous regions such as the Tunisian Dorsal, the Algerian Tell Atlas, and the Moroccan Anti-Atlas range. The future projections reveal consistent patterns of range contraction under climate change. Under SSP2-4.5, reductions of up to 22–26% by 2081–2100, while SSP5-8.5 forecasts more severe declines of 52–59%. These results highlight the vulnerability of the Cuvier's gazelle to climate change and underline the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies. The establishment of dynamic protected areas and ecological corridors are essential measures to reduce habitat fragmentation and ensure the long-term survival and resilience of the Cuvier's gazelle.