{"title":"Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using Staggered Adoption Design","authors":"Kaleb Abreha, Raymond Robertson","doi":"10.1007/s11293-025-09828-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Studies on regional trade agreements find heterogeneous trade-promoting effects that depend on the terms of the agreements, sectors and products covered, and the characteristics of signatory countries. The agreements also have different enforcement dates and implementation periods, affecting the identification, estimation, size, and interpretation of their effect on trade. This paper builds on recent advances in the difference-in-differences estimation to explicitly account for any heterogeneous and time-varying effects and multiple implementation periods of trade agreements. Using bilateral trade data between 1962 and 2020 from the <i>Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales</i>, the estimates show an effect of about 25–30% 10 years after implementation, which is larger than the standard two-way fixed estimates. The estimates also show phasing-in effects, in which the effects become larger over time. Furthermore, accounting for anticipation of the agreements affects the timing, size, and significance of these phasing-in effects. Overall, these results highlight the adjustment process for trade policies to take effect.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46061,"journal":{"name":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"53 3","pages":"113 - 124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11293-025-09828-0","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Studies on regional trade agreements find heterogeneous trade-promoting effects that depend on the terms of the agreements, sectors and products covered, and the characteristics of signatory countries. The agreements also have different enforcement dates and implementation periods, affecting the identification, estimation, size, and interpretation of their effect on trade. This paper builds on recent advances in the difference-in-differences estimation to explicitly account for any heterogeneous and time-varying effects and multiple implementation periods of trade agreements. Using bilateral trade data between 1962 and 2020 from the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales, the estimates show an effect of about 25–30% 10 years after implementation, which is larger than the standard two-way fixed estimates. The estimates also show phasing-in effects, in which the effects become larger over time. Furthermore, accounting for anticipation of the agreements affects the timing, size, and significance of these phasing-in effects. Overall, these results highlight the adjustment process for trade policies to take effect.
期刊介绍：
The Atlantic Economic Journal (AEJ) has an international reputation for excellent articles in all interest areas, without regard to fields or methodological preferences. Founded in 1973 by the International Atlantic Economic Society, a need was identified for increased communication among scholars from different countries. For over 30 years, the AEJ has continuously sought articles that traced some of the most critical economic changes and developments to occur on the global level. The journal''s goal is to facilitate and synthesize economic research across nations to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas and scholarly research. Contributors include some of the world''s most respected economists and financial specialists, including Nobel laureates and leading government officials. AEJ welcomes both theoretical and empirical articles, as well as public policy papers. All manuscripts are submitted to a double-blind peer review process. In addition to formal publication of full-length articles, the AEJ provides an opportunity for less formal communication through its Anthology section. A small point may not be worthy of a full-length, formal paper but is important enough to warrant dissemination to other researchers. Research in progress may be of interest to other scholars in the field. A research approach ending in negative results needs to be shared to save others similar pitfalls. The Anthology section has been established to facilitate these forms of communication. Anthologies provide a means by which short manuscripts of less than 500 words can quickly appear in the AEJ. All submissions are formally reviewed by the Board of Editors. Officially cited as: Atl Econ J
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