{"title":"Out of the Spotlight: A Long-Run Approach to College American Football Attendance in Division III","authors":"Paul A. Natke, Gregory A. Falls, Linlan Xiao","doi":"10.1007/s11293-025-09830-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>American college football attendance in Division III, the lowest level of National Collegiate Athletic Association-sanctioned play, has been ignored. Attendance and associated financial flows are far lower than the highest levels of competition. Although the scale of operations is lower, the relative indirect benefits to Division III colleges can be substantial. This study takes a long-run approach using a balanced panel (208 teams over 20 years) to discover primary driving forces on average season attendance from among economic, team performance and demographic measures. Fixed- and random-effects models are estimated. The state’s monthly unemployment rate and real travel cost exert no impact. Attendance decreases as real incomes rise, suggesting these games are inferior goods. Winning games matters. More wins in the current season and the previous two seasons, and more playoff appearances in the last ten years all increase attendance. Habit persistence is present although its magnitude decreases as the lag increases. An increase in lifetime winning percentage also increases attendance in the random-effects model. Greater male undergraduate enrollment increases attendance. Higher county populations reduce attendance in the random-effects model. Findings suggest that building a successful team, as measured by winning games, is the most important determinant of fan attendance in Division III. This relationship holds in the short run (i.e., current season, recent previous seasons) and over longer periods (last ten years and lifetime of the program). Even at this lower level of competition, there is pressure on football coaches to win.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46061,"journal":{"name":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"53 3","pages":"183 - 195"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11293-025-09830-6","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
American college football attendance in Division III, the lowest level of National Collegiate Athletic Association-sanctioned play, has been ignored. Attendance and associated financial flows are far lower than the highest levels of competition. Although the scale of operations is lower, the relative indirect benefits to Division III colleges can be substantial. This study takes a long-run approach using a balanced panel (208 teams over 20 years) to discover primary driving forces on average season attendance from among economic, team performance and demographic measures. Fixed- and random-effects models are estimated. The state’s monthly unemployment rate and real travel cost exert no impact. Attendance decreases as real incomes rise, suggesting these games are inferior goods. Winning games matters. More wins in the current season and the previous two seasons, and more playoff appearances in the last ten years all increase attendance. Habit persistence is present although its magnitude decreases as the lag increases. An increase in lifetime winning percentage also increases attendance in the random-effects model. Greater male undergraduate enrollment increases attendance. Higher county populations reduce attendance in the random-effects model. Findings suggest that building a successful team, as measured by winning games, is the most important determinant of fan attendance in Division III. This relationship holds in the short run (i.e., current season, recent previous seasons) and over longer periods (last ten years and lifetime of the program). Even at this lower level of competition, there is pressure on football coaches to win.
期刊介绍：
The Atlantic Economic Journal (AEJ) has an international reputation for excellent articles in all interest areas, without regard to fields or methodological preferences. Founded in 1973 by the International Atlantic Economic Society, a need was identified for increased communication among scholars from different countries. For over 30 years, the AEJ has continuously sought articles that traced some of the most critical economic changes and developments to occur on the global level. The journal''s goal is to facilitate and synthesize economic research across nations to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas and scholarly research. Contributors include some of the world''s most respected economists and financial specialists, including Nobel laureates and leading government officials. AEJ welcomes both theoretical and empirical articles, as well as public policy papers. All manuscripts are submitted to a double-blind peer review process. In addition to formal publication of full-length articles, the AEJ provides an opportunity for less formal communication through its Anthology section. A small point may not be worthy of a full-length, formal paper but is important enough to warrant dissemination to other researchers. Research in progress may be of interest to other scholars in the field. A research approach ending in negative results needs to be shared to save others similar pitfalls. The Anthology section has been established to facilitate these forms of communication. Anthologies provide a means by which short manuscripts of less than 500 words can quickly appear in the AEJ. All submissions are formally reviewed by the Board of Editors. Officially cited as: Atl Econ J
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