MIFEPRISTONE IN MEXICO: EVIDENCE OF CROSS-BORDER SPILLOVER

IF 2.3 2区医学 Q1 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY

Contraception Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI:10.1016/j.contraception.2025.111092

LR Woskie

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

We aimed to assess whether restrictive abortion policies in the US — specifically Texas Senate Bill 8 (SB8) and Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization — affected mifepristone sales within the formal health sector in Mexico, potentially indicating cross-border spillover.

Methods

We used a Synthetic Control Model (SCM) to estimate counterfactual trends in mifepristone sales in Mexico following two policy shocks: SB8 (September 2021) and Dobbs (June 2022). “Synthetic Mexico” was constructed using a weighted combination of countries with stable pre-trends and no relevant policy changes. Countries were selected based on data completeness and consistency, and weights were assigned using non-negative least squares.

Results

Both US policy interventions were associated with significant increases in mifepristone sales in Mexico. Following SB8, average quarterly sales rose by 123.8 units (95% CI, 72.7–190.8; p<0.01). After Dobbs, sales increased by 94.8 units (95% CI, 23.5–166.1; p<0.01). Although overall volume was low and pre-trend variability limits precision, consistent upward divergence from synthetic controls suggests unique shifts at both policy points. These results are limited to the formal health sector; and SB8 coincides with Mexico’s internal decriminalization ruling, which may explain the larger increase in sales.

Conclusions

These data offer empirical evidence that US abortion restrictions displace demand across borders, increasing mifepristone sales in Mexico. Concurrent policy shifts within Mexico make it challenging to attribute causality for SB8, but results underscore the need for a regional perspective on reproductive health access and policy impact.

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米非司酮在墨西哥：跨境溢出的证据

目的：我们旨在评估美国的限制性堕胎政策——特别是德克萨斯州参议院第8号法案（SB8）和多布斯诉杰克逊妇女健康组织——是否影响了墨西哥正规卫生部门的米非司酮销售，可能表明跨境溢出效应。方法：我们使用综合控制模型（SCM）来估计两次政策冲击（SB8（2021年9月）和Dobbs（2022年6月））后墨西哥米非司酮销售的反事实趋势。“合成墨西哥”的构建使用了具有稳定的前期趋势且没有相关政策变化的国家的加权组合。根据数据的完整性和一致性选择国家，并使用非负最小二乘法分配权重。结果美国的两项政策干预都与墨西哥米非司酮销售的显著增加有关。继SB8之后，平均季度销量增加了123.8台（95% CI, 72.7-190.8; p<0.01）。在Dobbs之后，销量增加了94.8台（95% CI, 23.5-166.1; p<0.01）。尽管总体成交量较低，趋势前的可变性限制了精度，但与综合控制的持续上升背离表明，两个政策点都有独特的转变。这些结果仅限于正规卫生部门；而SB8恰好与墨西哥内部的非刑事化裁决相吻合，这或许可以解释销量的大幅增长。这些数据提供了经验证据，证明美国的堕胎限制取代了跨境需求，增加了米非司酮在墨西哥的销售。墨西哥国内同时发生的政策转变使得很难确定SB8的因果关系，但结果强调需要从区域角度看待生殖健康机会和政策影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contraception 医学-妇产科学

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

17.20%

发文量

211

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Contraception has an open access mirror journal Contraception: X, sharing the same aims and scope, editorial team, submission system and rigorous peer review. The journal Contraception wishes to advance reproductive health through the rapid publication of the best and most interesting new scholarship regarding contraception and related fields such as abortion. The journal welcomes manuscripts from investigators working in the laboratory, clinical and social sciences, as well as public health and health professions education.