Development and validation of a prediction model for pulmonary infection in elderly patients with traumatic brain injury.

IF 1.4 4区医学 Q4 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Neurochirurgie Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI:10.1016/j.neuchi.2025.101733

Shuai Tian, Ali Shang, Wenqian Zhou, Zhen Xu, Yunpeng Kou, Zhenyu Guo, Fan Chen, Peigang Ji, Yulong Zhai, Wenjian Zhao, Yang Jiao, Zhipeng Song, Shunnan Ge, Yuan Wang, Liang Wang, Shaochun Guo

{"title":"Development and validation of a prediction model for pulmonary infection in elderly patients with traumatic brain injury.","authors":"Shuai Tian, Ali Shang, Wenqian Zhou, Zhen Xu, Yunpeng Kou, Zhenyu Guo, Fan Chen, Peigang Ji, Yulong Zhai, Wenjian Zhao, Yang Jiao, Zhipeng Song, Shunnan Ge, Yuan Wang, Liang Wang, Shaochun Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.neuchi.2025.101733","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objectives: This study aimed to investigate risk factors associated with pulmonary infection (PI) in elderly patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Additionally, this study sought to develop and validate a predictive model for PI in elderly patients with TBI using clinical data obtained upon admission.Methods: The study retrospectively analyzed elderly patients (≥ 65 years) with TBI at Tangdu Hospital between January 2011 and December 2021. These patients were randomly allocated to training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A nomogram model was developed to predict the risk of PI in elderly patients with TBI. Internal validation was conducted using a verification set, while external validation was performed using patient data from a different hospital.Results: A total of 592 elderly patients with TBI were included. The Glasgow coma scale score on admission, chest injury, hemoglobin, albumin, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin, and surgery was found to be independent predictors of PI in elderly patients with TBI. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination ability, with a consistency index of 0.918 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.891-0.944), which was verified to be 0.848 (95% CI: 0.786-0.910). The area under the curve for the external validation cohorts was 0.836 (95% CI: 0.770-0.903).Conclusions: This study developed and validated a prediction model for PI in elderly patients with TBI. The nomogram model demonstrated a favorable discriminatory and predictive capacity for predicting PI in elderly patients with TBI.","PeriodicalId":51141,"journal":{"name":"Neurochirurgie","volume":" ","pages":"101733"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Neurochirurgie","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuchi.2025.101733","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate risk factors associated with pulmonary infection (PI) in elderly patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Additionally, this study sought to develop and validate a predictive model for PI in elderly patients with TBI using clinical data obtained upon admission.

Methods: The study retrospectively analyzed elderly patients (≥ 65 years) with TBI at Tangdu Hospital between January 2011 and December 2021. These patients were randomly allocated to training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A nomogram model was developed to predict the risk of PI in elderly patients with TBI. Internal validation was conducted using a verification set, while external validation was performed using patient data from a different hospital.

Results: A total of 592 elderly patients with TBI were included. The Glasgow coma scale score on admission, chest injury, hemoglobin, albumin, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin, and surgery was found to be independent predictors of PI in elderly patients with TBI. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination ability, with a consistency index of 0.918 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.891-0.944), which was verified to be 0.848 (95% CI: 0.786-0.910). The area under the curve for the external validation cohorts was 0.836 (95% CI: 0.770-0.903).

Conclusions: This study developed and validated a prediction model for PI in elderly patients with TBI. The nomogram model demonstrated a favorable discriminatory and predictive capacity for predicting PI in elderly patients with TBI.

查看原文本刊更多论文

老年外伤性脑损伤患者肺部感染预测模型的建立与验证。

目的：本研究旨在探讨老年创伤性脑损伤（TBI）患者肺部感染（PI）的相关危险因素。此外，本研究试图利用入院时获得的临床数据，开发并验证老年TBI患者PI的预测模型。方法：回顾性分析2011年1月至2021年12月唐都医院老年TBI患者（≥65岁）。这些患者以7:3的比例随机分配到训练组和验证组。我们建立了一个nomogram模型来预测老年TBI患者发生PI的风险。内部验证使用验证集进行，而外部验证使用来自不同医院的患者数据进行。结果：共纳入592例老年TBI患者。入院时格拉斯哥昏迷评分、胸部损伤、血红蛋白、白蛋白、c反应蛋白、降钙素原、b型利钠肽、肌钙蛋白和手术是老年TBI患者PI的独立预测因子。nomogram具有较好的判别能力，一致性指数为0.918(95%置信区间（CI）： 0.891 ~ 0.944)，一致性指数为0.848（95%置信区间（CI）： 0.786 ~ 0.910）。外部验证队列的曲线下面积为0.836 （95% CI: 0.77 -0.903）。结论：本研究建立并验证了老年TBI患者PI的预测模型。nomogram模型对老年TBI患者PI的预测具有良好的判别和预测能力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Neurochirurgie 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

6.20%

发文量

100

审稿时长

29 days

期刊介绍： Neurochirurgie publishes articles on treatment, teaching and research, neurosurgery training and the professional aspects of our discipline, and also the history and progress of neurosurgery. It focuses on pathologies of the head, spine and central and peripheral nervous systems and their vascularization. All aspects of the specialty are dealt with: trauma, tumor, degenerative disease, infection, vascular pathology, and radiosurgery, and pediatrics. Transversal studies are also welcome: neuroanatomy, neurophysiology, neurology, neuropediatrics, psychiatry, neuropsychology, physical medicine and neurologic rehabilitation, neuro-anesthesia, neurologic intensive care, neuroradiology, functional exploration, neuropathology, neuro-ophthalmology, otoneurology, maxillofacial surgery, neuro-endocrinology and spine surgery. Technical and methodological aspects are also taken onboard: diagnostic and therapeutic techniques, methods for assessing results, epidemiology, surgical, interventional and radiological techniques, simulations and pathophysiological hypotheses, and educational tools. The editorial board may refuse submissions that fail to meet the journal''s aims and scope; such studies will not be peer-reviewed, and the editor in chief will promptly inform the corresponding author, so as not to delay submission to a more suitable journal. With a view to attracting an international audience of both readers and writers, Neurochirurgie especially welcomes articles in English, and gives priority to original studies. Other kinds of article - reviews, case reports, technical notes and meta-analyses - are equally published. Every year, a special edition is dedicated to the topic selected by the French Society of Neurosurgery for its annual report.