Climate-driven habitat decline and fragmentation of a South Asian grassland specialist: ensemble projections for Jerdon’s Babbler under future scenarios

IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Harif Parengal , P.R. Arun , P.V. Karunakaran , Sarbasis Dutta
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change poses significant threats to biodiversity, particularly for habitat-specialist species like Jerdon’s Babbler (Chrysomma altirostre), a grassland-dependent passerine of South and South-east Asia. This study employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach using 12 algorithms and climatic-elevation predictors to assess the current and future habitat suitability for Jerdon’s Babbler under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, across four future timeframes (2021––2100). Occurrence data (n = 79) were compiled from field surveys and secondary sources, filtered to reduce spatial autocorrelation. Environmental predictors were selected through Pearson correlation and permutation importance methods, with elevation, grassland proximity, and thermal variables emerging as key determinants of distribution. Among individual models, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine outperformed others (TSS > 0.88), and ensemble models achieved perfect calibration (TSS and ROC = 1.00).
Projected distributions indicate severe range contraction under all future scenarios, with habitat loss exceeding 80 % by 2081–2100 period under SSP1-2.6 and near-total collapse under SSP5-8.5. Subspecies-specific centroid analyses showed varying climate sensitivity, with Indian and Burmese populations shifting over 900 km, while Indo-Bangladesh populations remained largely static. Despite the potential persistence of refugia in northeastern India and Nepal under low-emission pathways, model projections underscore the urgency of targeted conservation strategies, including grassland restoration, climate-resilient corridors, and ex-situ conservation in high-risk areas. This study highlights the critical vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change and the value of ensemble SDMs for anticipatory conservation planning.
气候驱动的栖息地减少和南亚草原专家的破碎化:未来情景下对杰登巴布勒的整体预测
气候变化对生物多样性构成了重大威胁,特别是对栖息于特定栖息地的物种,如南亚和东南亚的草地上依赖的雀形目动物杰登的巴布勒(Chrysomma altirostre)。本研究采用集合物种分布模型(SDM)方法,利用12种算法和气候海拔预测因子,在三个共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5),在四个未来时间段(2021 - 2100)评估了Jerdon’s Babbler当前和未来的栖息地适宜性。发生数据(n = 79)来自实地调查和二手来源,经过过滤以降低空间自相关性。通过Pearson相关性和排列重要性方法选择环境预测因子,海拔、草地邻近度和热变量成为分布的关键决定因素。在个体模型中,Random Forest和Gradient Boosting Machine的表现优于其他模型(TSS > 0.88),而ensemble模型达到了完美的校准(TSS和ROC = 1.00)。预估的分布表明,在所有未来情景下,栖息地范围严重缩小,到2081-2100年,在SSP1-2.6情景下,栖息地损失超过80%,在SSP5-8.5情景下,栖息地几乎完全消失。亚种特异性质心分析显示气候敏感性不同,印度和缅甸种群迁移超过900公里,而印度-孟加拉国种群基本保持不变。尽管在低排放路径下,印度东北部和尼泊尔的难民可能会持续存在,但模型预测强调了有针对性的保护战略的紧迫性,包括草地恢复、气候适应性走廊和高风险地区的迁地保护。本研究强调了草原鸟类对气候变化的严重脆弱性,以及集合SDMs对预期保护规划的价值。
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来源期刊
Journal for Nature Conservation
Journal for Nature Conservation 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
151
审稿时长
7.9 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal for Nature Conservation addresses concepts, methods and techniques for nature conservation. This international and interdisciplinary journal encourages collaboration between scientists and practitioners, including the integration of biodiversity issues with social and economic concepts. Therefore, conceptual, technical and methodological papers, as well as reviews, research papers, and short communications are welcomed from a wide range of disciplines, including theoretical ecology, landscape ecology, restoration ecology, ecological modelling, and others, provided that there is a clear connection and immediate relevance to nature conservation. Manuscripts without any immediate conservation context, such as inventories, distribution modelling, genetic studies, animal behaviour, plant physiology, will not be considered for this journal; though such data may be useful for conservationists and managers in the future, this is outside of the current scope of the journal.
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