Proactive adaptation to climate change in landscape configuration and agricultural management optimization: A case study of agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China

Abstract

Optimizing landscape patterns and management measures would be an effective strategy for the agro-pastoral transitional zone in northern China (ATNC) to adapt to future climate change. Existing studies generally focus on cropland or pasture, and thus there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the landscape composition and configuration in complex agro-pastoral transitional zone. In this study, Ansai County in the ATNC was chosen as an experimental area. Four typical agroecosystem services (AESs), food provision (FP), soil carbon (SC), soil retention (SR) and water yield (WY) from 1980 to 2020, were simulated by spatially integrating a model of the agricultural system using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) combined with geographic information systems technology. The impacts of different crop types, pasture configurations, and tillage practices on AESs under future climate scenarios were assessed in the context of agro-pastoral transition. Finally, the optimal landscape pattern configuration and management measures were identified through single-objective and multi-objective optimization models. The results showed that under historical scenarios, implementing policies such as converting cropland to pastureland improved SC and SR but reduced FP and WY. Compared to traditional and reduced tillage, no-till practices benefited the enlargement of AESs and the agricultural ecosystem. Notably, future climate change generally negatively affected AESs, especially under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5–8.5) climate scenario. The combination of planting corn and no-till measures would be ideal for optimizing the agricultural ecosystem in Ansai County. For the fragile ATNC, we should advocate conservation agriculture and policies converting cropland to pastureland to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate changes. This study establishes a replicable framework to address landscape management in complex agropastoral systems and offers solutions for climate-resilient land management in global dryland transitional zones, contributing to the realization of regional ecosystem sustainability.