R. E. Tatevossian, A. V. Ponomarev, O. M. Beloslyudtsev, V. V. Bykova, S. M. Stroganova
{"title":"The January 22, 2024 Mw 7.0 Earthquake in the Southern Tien Shan: Filling a Seismic Gap?","authors":"R. E. Tatevossian, A. V. Ponomarev, O. M. Beloslyudtsev, V. V. Bykova, S. M. Stroganova","doi":"10.1134/S1069351325700582","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Abstract</b>—On January 22, 2024, an <i>Mw</i> = 7.0 earthquake occurred in the Southern Tien Shan in the Kyrgyzstan–China border region. The article presents an analysis of the previous regional seismicity based on homogeneous seismological data (global catalogs of earthquakes and focal mechanisms) and seismotectonic data (global database of active faults). The aftershock sequence is also studied based on regional data. It is shown that the source zone of the January 22, 2024 earthquake has partially filled the previously existing seismic gap and the gap in the active fault system. The aftershock series is intense, although without a pronounced strong aftershock. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks practically coincide with the mechanism of the main shock. According to regional data, there is a deficit of strong aftershocks (<i>mb</i> ≥ 4.8). Whether this indicates that the seismic process is “completed” cannot be decided based on the data covering only a half-year observation period. The change in the number of aftershocks over time shows that a month and a half after the main shock, the decay of the aftershock process slowed down. This can be due both to the return of seismic activity to its long-term average level and to the stress redistribution in the focal area. As a rule, a seismotectonic basis for seismic hazard assessment is maps of active faults. In this case, a strong earthquake occurred in the region where there were no documented active faults; rather, earthquake faulting extended the pre-existing fault, on the edge of which a cluster of earthquake sources had previously been noted. The question arises: how reliable are seismic hazard assessments when their seismotectonic basis is the mapped active faults?</p>","PeriodicalId":602,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","volume":"61 4","pages":"553 - 562"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S1069351325700582","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract—On January 22, 2024, an Mw = 7.0 earthquake occurred in the Southern Tien Shan in the Kyrgyzstan–China border region. The article presents an analysis of the previous regional seismicity based on homogeneous seismological data (global catalogs of earthquakes and focal mechanisms) and seismotectonic data (global database of active faults). The aftershock sequence is also studied based on regional data. It is shown that the source zone of the January 22, 2024 earthquake has partially filled the previously existing seismic gap and the gap in the active fault system. The aftershock series is intense, although without a pronounced strong aftershock. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks practically coincide with the mechanism of the main shock. According to regional data, there is a deficit of strong aftershocks (mb ≥ 4.8). Whether this indicates that the seismic process is “completed” cannot be decided based on the data covering only a half-year observation period. The change in the number of aftershocks over time shows that a month and a half after the main shock, the decay of the aftershock process slowed down. This can be due both to the return of seismic activity to its long-term average level and to the stress redistribution in the focal area. As a rule, a seismotectonic basis for seismic hazard assessment is maps of active faults. In this case, a strong earthquake occurred in the region where there were no documented active faults; rather, earthquake faulting extended the pre-existing fault, on the edge of which a cluster of earthquake sources had previously been noted. The question arises: how reliable are seismic hazard assessments when their seismotectonic basis is the mapped active faults?
期刊介绍：
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth is an international peer reviewed journal that publishes results of original theoretical and experimental research in relevant areas of the physics of the Earth''s interior and applied geophysics. The journal welcomes manuscripts from all countries in the English or Russian language.
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