Allision risk and impact analysis in recreational fishing boats using fuzzy bayesian networks and the finite element method

Abstract

The growing popularity of recreational boating—fuelled by the promotion of boating and fishing experiences on social media - has led to a significant increase in boat purchases and maritime activities. However, many of these amateur fishers or boaters possess limited knowledge of the potential risks they may encounter while operating a boat. These risks must be addressed to ensure safe and sustainable boating activities. This study aims to evaluate and quantitatively assess the potential allision risks faced by sailors by integrating Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) with the Finite Element Method (FEM). The proposed approach is intended to identify the most influential risk factors, measure their relative impacts, and provide a systematic framework to support risk-informed decision-making in maritime safety management. The findings of the research conducted using the FBN method indicate that the two most significant root causes of accidents are sobriety and lack of experience. Furthermore, the FEM analysis demonstrated that fiberglass boats experienced higher stress and displacement under impact than oakwood boats. The implementation of these approaches facilitates enhanced risk management strategies for recreational boaters and operational guidelines for regulatory authorities and the fishing community. By promoting awareness and adherence to these guidelines, it is possible to significantly reduce the risks associated with recreational boating activities.