Mapping potential habitat for naturally recolonizing cougars (Puma concolor) in Missouri, USA

Abstract

Cougars (Puma concolor) have been increasingly documented in the Midwestern United States in the past few decades following historical extirpation, including in Missouri (USA), where verified sightings occur regularly. To map potential habitat and inform monitoring efforts, we developed a species distribution model (MaxEnt) using a decade of verified cougar occurrences from 2011 to 2022 (n = 76) and landscape variables hypothesized to influence cougar occurrence. Model performance was good. Terrain ruggedness (50 %), distance to natural cover (23 %), and vegetation productivity (19 %) were the most influential predictors of landscape suitability for cougars. The model identified ∼63,000 km² of potential cougar habitat, primarily in central and southeastern Missouri; only 17 % of these overlapped with public lands. Model validation using 2023–2024 sightings (n = 19) showed 95 % of observations fell within or ≤ 3 km of potential habitat. Our model may slightly underestimate the full extent of cougar range, but it captures the overall spatial pattern and identifies a broader area of suitable habitat in Missouri than previous studies, highlighting the value of localized, state-level modeling for research and conservation planning. Findings provide a spatial framework for monitoring dispersing cougars in fragmented, human-modified landscapes, where public outreach and extension programs will be crucial to promoting effective human-cougar coexistence should recolonization occur in Missouri.