Unveiling local dynamics of Chinese cities: A multidimensional scale-adjusted analysis

Abstract

Unbiasedly quantifying urban dynamics remains challenging because of the inherent nonlinear scaling effects of city development across multiple dimensions, especially when comparing cities of different sizes. This study addresses this challenge by developing a multidimensional scale-adjusted framework to evaluate 297 Chinese cities from 1990 to 2020 across five dimensions: Economy, Infrastructure, Environment, Healthcare, and Education. Using the Scale-Adjusted Metropolitan Indicators (SAMIs) derived from urban scaling models, which measure performance relative to city size expectations, we reveal growing tensions between economic growth and public service provision. The scaling exponents β of economic indicators rose from an average of 1.02 to1.23, reflecting stronger increasing returns to scale, while environmental and healthcare pressures persisted (β < 1). Economic SAMIs increasingly decoupled from those of education and healthcare, with correlations falling from 0.25 and 0.58 in 1990 to −0.03 and 0.13 in 2020. The Scale-Adjusted City Development Index (SCDI), a multidimensional composite metric, identifies two phases in China's regional disparity: differentiation (1990–2000) and rebalancing (2010–2020), with significant spatial and temporal dependencies. Case analyses demonstrate divergent development trajectories, including boom–bust cycles of resource-based cities and efficiency decline in mature coastal cities. This study contributes a generalizable framework integrating urban scaling theory with multidimensional diagnostics, offering a 30-year longitudinal assessment of interdimensional and regional imbalance with tailored policy recommendations. Complementing traditional total or per capita metrics, the framework provides a scale-neutral tool for equitable cross-city comparisons and actionable guidance for integrated, differentiated policymaking in China and beyond.