Where shall we live on the Moon? Multi-factor site selection and scenario-based planning for permanent lunar habitats

Abstract

The Moon is a prime target for permanent human settlement due to its proximity, resource availability, and geological stability. However, habitat suitability assessment is complicated by multiple interacting environmental factors. To evaluate lunar habitat suitability, we first identified eight key factors: temperature, topography, solar illumination, construction minerals, photovoltaic minerals, lunar dust activity, water resources, and radiation. And quantified them using data from LOLA, the Chang'e−2 microwave radiometer, and γ-ray spectrometer, then developed single-factor suitability indices and mapped their spatial distributions. We then evaluated six application scenarios relevant to a lunar base: scientific research base, residence, photovoltaic zones, water-supply hubs, transportation routes, and spacecraft landing sites. Each was assessed using a composite suitability index derived via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which weighted the influence of the eight factors. High-suitability areas were mainly located in mid-to low-latitude mare plains. Multi-factor analysis identified three promising regions that meet the suitability criteria across all six scenarios. Region 1 lies within the mare plain enclosed by the Pytheas crater cluster (14.52° N–18.25° N, 16.24° W–20.26° W), covering 11287 ${km}^2$. Region 2 is situated in the mare plain enclosed by the Gambart crater cluster (5.08° N–1.77° S, 10.29° W–18.02° W), covering 48613 ${km}^2$. Region 3 occupies the mare plain enclosed by the Parry crater cluster (6.39° S–11.02° S, 10.29° W–14.28° W), covering 8480 ${km}^2$. Based on these findings, we propose a spatial layout for a multifunctional lunar base, offering a strategic foundation for long-term lunar habitation.