Cryptocurrencies and financial market stability: Theoretical modeling and empirical evidence of spillover effects from sequential attention cycles of crypto investors

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Research in International Business and Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103141

Gilles Brice M’bakob

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the impact of cryptocurrency investors’ attention cycles, particularly those driven by Bitcoin halving and blockchain-based financial technologies, on the stability of traditional financial markets. It contributes to the literature by proposing a theoretical framework that models an asymmetric, sequential attention transfer mechanism and tests it empirically using SVAR-X and Bayesian VAR approaches. Monthly data from January 2014 to December 2024, sourced from the 20 countries with the highest cryptocurrency adoption in 2024, are analyzed. Findings reveal that attention shocks propagate asymmetrically from Bitcoin halving to blockchain technologies and subsequently to traditional financial markets through market capitalization cycles and cryptocurrency-backed derivatives. Positive cyclical shocks stabilize markets, whereas negative shocks destabilize them. Robustness and sensitivity analyses confirm these findings and highlight differences between developed and emerging markets. Regulators should enhance monitoring of attention cycles and strengthen oversight of cryptocurrency derivatives to mitigate associated risks.

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加密货币与金融市场稳定：加密投资者连续关注周期溢出效应的理论建模和经验证据

本研究考察了加密货币投资者的注意力周期，特别是由比特币减半和基于区块链的金融技术驱动的注意力周期，对传统金融市场稳定性的影响。它通过提出一个理论框架来模拟不对称的、顺序的注意转移机制，并使用SVAR-X和贝叶斯VAR方法对其进行实证检验，从而为文献做出了贡献。本文分析了2014年1月至2024年12月的月度数据，这些数据来自2024年加密货币使用率最高的20个国家。研究结果表明，注意力冲击不对称地从比特币减半传播到区块链技术，随后通过市值周期和加密货币支持的衍生品传播到传统金融市场。积极的周期性冲击稳定市场，而消极的周期性冲击破坏市场稳定。稳健性和敏感性分析证实了这些发现，并突出了发达市场与新兴市场之间的差异。监管机构应加强对注意力周期的监测，加强对加密货币衍生品的监管，以减轻相关风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Research in International Business and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.20

自引率

9.20%

发文量

240

期刊介绍： Research in International Business and Finance (RIBAF) seeks to consolidate its position as a premier scholarly vehicle of academic finance. The Journal publishes high quality, insightful, well-written papers that explore current and new issues in international finance. Papers that foster dialogue, innovation, and intellectual risk-taking in financial studies; as well as shed light on the interaction between finance and broader societal concerns are particularly appreciated. The Journal welcomes submissions that seek to expand the boundaries of academic finance and otherwise challenge the discipline. Papers studying finance using a variety of methodologies; as well as interdisciplinary studies will be considered for publication. Papers that examine topical issues using extensive international data sets are welcome. Single-country studies can also be considered for publication provided that they develop novel methodological and theoretical approaches or fall within the Journal''s priority themes. It is especially important that single-country studies communicate to the reader why the particular chosen country is especially relevant to the issue being investigated. [...] The scope of topics that are most interesting to RIBAF readers include the following: -Financial markets and institutions -Financial practices and sustainability -The impact of national culture on finance -The impact of formal and informal institutions on finance -Privatizations, public financing, and nonprofit issues in finance -Interdisciplinary financial studies -Finance and international development -International financial crises and regulation -Financialization studies -International financial integration and architecture -Behavioral aspects in finance -Consumer finance -Methodologies and conceptualization issues related to finance