Long-term dynamics and intensity of LULC changes and conservational implications in the Zagros mountain ecoregion, Iran

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI:10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127113

Ali Abdollahzadeh , Raoof Mostafazadeh

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Given its significance for environmental security, water supply, and community livelihoods, this study focuses on land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Zagros ecoregion of northwest Iran. The study aimed to assess historical LULC changes from 1972 to 2022, predict future trends for 2030 using the Cellelar-Automata-Markov (CA)-Markov model, and analyze the driving forces behind landscape changes. LULC maps were generated for 1972, 1986, 1993, 2000, 2008, 2016, and 2022 using Google Earth Engine and classified into six categories: agriculture, forest, rangeland, settlements, barren land, and water bodies. The rate and intensity of LULC changes were quantified using single and integrated dynamic degrees to capture spatio-temporal transformations across land use classes. The analysis revealed substantial LULC shifts over the past five decades. Agricultural land increased from 6.04% in 1986 to 27.37% in 2022, while forest cover declined sharply, and rangeland decreased from 76.65% in 2000 to 44.89% in 2022. Settlements also expanded significantly from 2.35% to 8.11% during the same period. The most intense changes occurred during 2000–2008, with bare land showing a sharp increase (3.295) and rangeland a slight decrease (−0.006). From 2016 to 2022, settlements exhibited significant growth (0.263), while rangelands continued to decline (−0.037). Future projections for 2030 indicate continued expansion of agriculture and settlements, rangelands converting mainly to bare land (55.76%) and agriculture (19.32%), and forests largely transforming to bare land (58.95%) with only 1.74% remaining stable. The integrated dynamic degree dmonstrates periods of intensified LULC transformations, particularly during 1986–1993 and 2022–2030 (0.0220). The projected trends necessitate comprehensive policies such as community-based forest management, promotion of agroforestry and silvopastoral systems, incentives for sustainable farming, and participatory land restoration programs to mitigate adverse environmental impacts and strengthen ecological resilience in the Little Zab River Watershed.

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伊朗扎格罗斯山地生态区土地利用价值变化的长期动态和强度及其保护意义

鉴于其对环境安全、供水和社区生计的重要性，本研究侧重于伊朗西北部扎格罗斯生态区的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）动态。利用Cellelar-Automata-Markov (CA)-Markov模型，评估1972 - 2022年中国土地利用价值的历史变化，预测2030年的未来趋势，并分析景观变化背后的驱动力。使用谷歌Earth Engine生成了1972年、1986年、1993年、2000年、2008年、2016年和2022年的LULC地图，并将其分为6类：农业、森林、牧场、定居点、荒地和水体。利用单一动态度和综合动态度对土地利用变化的速度和强度进行量化，以捕捉不同土地利用类型的时空变化。分析显示，在过去50年里，LULC发生了实质性的变化。农业用地从1986年的6.04%增加到2022年的27.37%，森林覆盖率急剧下降，牧场从2000年的76.65%下降到2022年的44.89%。同期，结算比例也从2.35%大幅上升至8.11%。变化最剧烈的是2000-2008年，其中裸地急剧增加（3.295），草地略有减少（- 0.006）。2016 - 2022年，居民点显著增长（0.263），草地持续下降（- 0.037）。对2030年的未来预测表明，农业和居民点将继续扩大，牧场主要转变为裸地（55.76%）和农业（19.32%），森林主要转变为裸地（58.95%），只有1.74%保持稳定。综合动态程度显示出LULC变化加剧的时期，特别是1986-1993年和2022-2030年（0.0220）。预测的趋势需要采取综合政策，如以社区为基础的森林管理、促进农林业和森林牧养系统、可持续农业激励措施和参与式土地恢复计划，以减轻小扎布河流域的不利环境影响，增强生态恢复能力。

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来源期刊

Journal for Nature Conservation 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

5.00%

发文量

151

审稿时长

7.9 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal for Nature Conservation addresses concepts, methods and techniques for nature conservation. This international and interdisciplinary journal encourages collaboration between scientists and practitioners, including the integration of biodiversity issues with social and economic concepts. Therefore, conceptual, technical and methodological papers, as well as reviews, research papers, and short communications are welcomed from a wide range of disciplines, including theoretical ecology, landscape ecology, restoration ecology, ecological modelling, and others, provided that there is a clear connection and immediate relevance to nature conservation. Manuscripts without any immediate conservation context, such as inventories, distribution modelling, genetic studies, animal behaviour, plant physiology, will not be considered for this journal; though such data may be useful for conservationists and managers in the future, this is outside of the current scope of the journal.