Pathways to a blue economy

Abstract

Charting a path to a blue economy is imperative to avoid major climate change and irreversible damage to marine ecosystems, the wider environment and society. The blue-ness of the future ocean economy and the associated health of the oceans and our planet will be determined by the pathways chosen, the strategies developed and decisions made now. Here, through bibliometric analysis, multidisciplinary literature review and data synthesis, we present prospective pathways that define different future ocean economies. The intention is to provoke interdisciplinary debate, exchange of ideas, further research and action towards shifting the ocean economy from grey to blue. We show that a business-as-usual pathway that sustains the current grey ocean economy will lead to accelerated violation of planetary boundaries and ultimately destruction of the natural capital on which the ocean economy and humanity depend; that a probable pathway, based on optimistic trends, which attempt to meet the conflicting increasing demand of populations globally and need to curb carbon emissions, is insufficient to meet decarbonisation and broader sustainability targets; and that a pathway to transition to a blue economy requires ambitious proactive strategies and immediate decisions, based on principles that aspire to the collaborative, fair and sustainable use of the ocean.